Rich Offerings Make for Some Especially Unpredictable Choices

Predicting the classical Grammys is a psychic’s work. One usually expects big names to win, but chaos theory is also at work here, and there are few sure bets. Historically, for instance, the most Grammy-ed classical musicians have been three radically dissimilar conductors--flashy Hungarian Georg Solti, revered choral master Robert Shaw and dazzling Modernist Pierre Boulez. Go figure.

Boulez and the late Shaw are, in fact, in a battle for best classical album this year. Sentiment will be on Shaw’s side--Dvorak’s Stabat Mater was his last recording. The Boulez is a wonderful performance of Bartok’s Second Violin Concerto with Gil Shaham. But don’t discount violinist Anne-Sophie Mutter. Or Michael Tilson Thomas’ San Francisco Symphony Stravinsky set--it is a revelation and my pick.

The San Francisco Symphony is also nominated for best orchestral performance, as is the Los Angeles Philharmonic, for its recording by Esa-Pekka Salonen of Revueltas--another revelation! And then we have a trio of Mahler symphonies: Boulez’s fresh First, Simon Rattle’s expressive Third and Benjamin Zander’s eccentrically emotional Ninth. It’s anybody’s guess.

The likeliest opera contenders are Carl Nielsen’s “Maskarade,� a little-known early 20th century comic opera in a wonderful Danish performance, and an all-star performance of the under-recorded “Rusalka� by Dvorak, a disc starring Renee Fleming that has already taken its share of international awards.

Even though there are no sure bets in Grammyville, it would be surprising if cult pianist Martha Argerich didn’t walk away with best instrumental soloist for her stunning performances of Prokofiev and Bartok concertos. And Evgeny Kissin’s grand-manner Chopin seems a reliable choice for soloist without orchestra.

The gripping performances of Tchaikovsky and Shostakovich trios by Argerich, Gidon Kremer and Mischa Maisky represent one of the greatest chamber music recordings ever, but they constitute so extreme an interpretation that Grammy voters may opt for Mutter’s gorgeous, uncontroversial Beethoven sonatas.

Few are apt to be disappointed if Ades’ “Asyla� is found to be the best contemporary work. It has been extravagantly reviewed (including in these pages); it is a fount of youthful invention.

But even so, Boulez’s “Repons� is the most deserving, an epic piece for ensemble and electronics that is a fount of mature invention, vision and originality.

Thomas Quasthoff is the favorite in the vocal category. Not only has he captured the public’s fancy as a profound singer, but he also has two of the five nominations. A dark horse is Matthias Goerne’s recording of Hanns Eisler’s “The Hollywood Songbook,� a fascinating document by an important German emigre composer who settled in L.A. My vote would be for the dark horse. But, then, I’m not a psychic.