L-o-o-o-n-g Odds

Once again, the state Lottery Commission is seeking new temptations to offset slumping sales of SuperLotto tickets, which deliver about $350 million annually to the state schools budget. First there was Lotto on Saturday nights. Then Lotto on Saturday and Wednesday and a host of instant “scratcher” games. Now there is SuperLotto, and California is likely to soon adopt SuperLotto Plus, with the promise of $60-million jackpots every two months or so and at least one $100-million prize each year. Well, there’s a hitch. While there would be more small cash prizes of up to $20,000, the odds for capturing the big prize would soar from 1 in 18 million to 1 in 41 million.

It’s argued that the new game would be good news for the schools since they receive 34% of lottery receipts, or about $350 million a year, from the SuperLotto game. But this pales in comparison with the nearly $30 billion the state plans to spend on the schools in the next fiscal year.

Much of the pressure for boosting Lotto sales comes from retailers who sell tickets. The more Lotto players there are, the more customers who may buy a quart of milk or a six-pack of beer at the same time. “Everybody who has a dollar will want to play,” one store manager in Sacramento said. “People will go crazy.” And, of course, retailers get a fee for dispensing tickets, as well as a bonus when they sell a big winner.

As gambling goes, the Lotto is pretty tame. You don’t read about people going deeply in debt, becoming addicted and even committing suicide, as sometimes happens with casino gambling. But it is often those who can least afford it who shell out for multiple lottery tickets, and Lotto advertising does nothing to discourage that. Yes, a share of the take does go to schools, but that’s hardly a rationale for playing the lottery.

In the proposed new game, to be considered by the Lottery Commission next week, players would pick five numbers in a field of 1 to 47 and then chose a “mega number” from 1 to 27. The big winner would match all six numbers drawn. Anyone who picked the first five numbers correctly would win an average of $20,000. The current prize for matching five of the six Lotto numbers averages only $1,500.

This year for the first time the lottery will be contending with a proliferation of Indian casinos, which were given a shot at gamblers’ hearts and pocketbooks with voter passage of Proposition 1A last month. SuperLotto Plus undoubtedly would spur new interest in the state lottery and boost receipts. But potential players need to remember that the long, long odds on being the big winner would be even worse.