Latino Dropout Rate Declines, Offering Hope

WASHINGTON — A year after a commission of experts called the high school dropout rate among Latinos “shockingly and unacceptably high,” the proportion of adult Latinos with high school diplomas inched upward, the Education Department reported Thursday.

From 1996 to 1997, the percentage of Latinos ages 18 to 24 who have completed high school crept from 61.9% to 66.7%. In the same period, the proportion of 16- to 24-year-old Latinos who said that they had dropped out of high school edged downward from 29.4% to 25.3%.

For educators intent on stemming the early departure of Latino students from school, the development provided a thin ray of hope. But they warned that the improvement is too small to be statistically significant and that the new figures fall far short of marking a reversal in a dismal dropout pattern for Latino high school students.

Walter G. Secada, a University of Wisconsin professor who has written extensively on the subject, said that the changes could be “a statistical hiccup” unless they are sustained over a longer time.

“That lowering of the dropout rate is not much variation,” said Secada. “I want to wait and see a decrease over more than a year before I’ll break out the champagne. One year barely deserves a bottle of water.”

Over the last 25 years, the dropout rate for Latinos has been 2.5 times higher than that for African Americans and 3.5 times higher than for non-Latino whites. In California, where Latinos account for more than 30% of the population, their low rate of high school completion has helped drive the high-school graduation rate among 18- to 24-year-olds to a level below those of 48 other states and the District of Columbia.

Statewide, the data released Friday by the Education Department show that 80.6% of the state’s 18- to 24-year-olds are either completing high school or have already done so. Only Louisiana and Nevada had lower levels, with 80.4% in Louisiana and 76.6% in Nevada.

By a separate measure announced Thursday in the same report, however, California has made some improvements in driving down the number of students who leave high school early. During the 1995-96 year, the latest year for which such statistics are available, the state reported that 3.9% of all students in grades nine through 12 had quit school short of graduation. That was down from 4.4% in the 1994-95 school year and 5.3% in 1993-94.

The causes of the educational gap between Latinos and other ethnic and racial groups are unclear. Latinos on average have lower incomes and English-language proficiency than other racial and ethnic groups and are more likely to be recent immigrants. But none of these differences alone explains the difference in dropout rates.

Last year’s report of the Hispanic Dropout Project galvanized a nationwide movement to reverse the trend. In addition, the Clinton administration has earmarked federal funds and created special programs to address the high rate of school failure among Latinos. As a result, from Los Angeles to New York to Texas, educators are focusing attention on programs that work to keep Latinos enrolled.

One of them is the Coca-Cola Valued Youth Program, which started in San Antonio in 1984 and has spread to cities such as Atlanta, Chicago and Washington. The program recruits Latino middle school students who are considered at high risk of dropping out to become tutors to Latino elementary school children, in effect making them role models for younger Latinos.

The dropout rate among the Valued Youth tutors has been 2%, compared with about 12% for children from comparable backgrounds who have not participated. Secada, who has surveyed dropout prevention programs across the country, lauded Lennox Middle School, part of an independent school system near Los Angeles International Airport, for its efforts to keep Latino students engaged.

Asked if there is a secret to keeping Latino students in school, Lennox Principal Michael D. Griffith stressed the importance of high expectations. “They need to see themselves as important in your eyes.”