Clinton Fallout Could Affect Power Balance in Sacramento

SACRAMENTO â€”  It’s campaign season again for most of the California Legislature, only this time there’s a new element at work.

Some may ignore it; some fear it’s a vote-killer. Some will seize the opportunity it presents.

The “it� is the President Clinton scandal. Never mind that it’s 3,000 miles away from state Senate and Assembly races. It is popping up in some crucial contests, including the race that tops Republicans’ list of seats they believe they can seize.

Republican Phil Hawkins of Cerritos, trying to unseat Assemblywoman Sally Havice in that intense contest, said he has “been knocking on doors� and finding Democrats repulsed by the Clinton revelations. As the campaign progresses, “we will make reference to it,� he said.

Havice’s reply: The president has created a “mess� for himself, but “obviously, I’m not Bill Clinton. I’m Sally Havice�--who, she said, has introduced a string of bills, some signed into law, that benefit her blue-collar district.

Three hundred miles away in the San Joaquin Valley, Democrat Sal Cannella said that if the Clinton scandal surfaces in his race to upset the Republican incumbent, he will turn it to his advantage.

“The Clinton thing helps me,� Cannella said. “I’ve been married to the same woman for 34 years. My opponent has been married four times. . . . I’m on the right side of family-values issues.�

As theories abound on Clinton’s potential election-day impact, Republican strategists are hoping that Democrats will be so disenchanted with Clinton they’ll stay home and not vote.

In tight races where fewer than 1,000 votes might make the difference, depressing the Democratic turnout could be crucial, notably in Assembly races. That, coupled with the historic fact that Democrats, in any case, do not vote as regularly as Republicans in nonpresidential elections, gives Republicans in legislative races added hope.

Democrats counter that it is a stretch to attempt to link candidates for the state Assembly and Senate to the wrongful behavior of a Democratic president.

“I don’t think it gets down to local races,� said Senate leader John Burton, a Democrat from San Francisco. “I think Democrats are going to be so hungry to elect a governor that they will turn out higher than they usually do in a gubernatorial year.� High on the November ballot in visibility and TV ad spending is the race for governor between Democrat Gray Davis and Republican Dan Lungren.

On the other hand, Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa (D-Los Angeles) worries that the Clinton phenomenon could hurt Democrats. “The president’s controversies could have an impact� on whether Democrats vote in November, he said.

If California voter turnout is below the 8.9 million of 1994, “we could be in trouble,� said Villaraigosa, who is in charge of trying to hold the Assembly’s Democratic majority, now at six seats.

Republicans won an Assembly majority in 1994 for the first time in 24 years, then lost it in the 1996 elections. The state Senate has been in Democratic hands since 1970.

At stake in 1998 legislative races are all 80 seats in the Assembly and 20 of the 40 seats in the Senate, where Democrats command a 23-to-16 majority.

Republicans Hope to Recapture Majority

In the Assembly, Republicans say recapturing a majority is within range. A switch to Republicans in just four Assembly districts would put them back in charge.

GOP campaign chief Bill Leonard, the Republican leader in the Assembly, said a Republican takeover is doable, and that the Clinton troubles could be a factor, as history suggests.

Leonard said he watched in dismay as “Republican voters punished Republican candidates by staying home� in 1974, the year President Nixon resigned in the wake of Watergate, and again in 1992 after “President Bush lied,� saying he would not raise taxes.

“I have only sympathy for Democrats now when their leader lies to America,� he said.

Much of the legislative campaign plotting mirrors the nation in its divisions and contradictions in response to the Clinton scandals.

“We view these races as local races that will be fought on local issues,� said Sen. Jim Brulte of Rancho Cucamonga, a Senate GOP strategist. He said using Clinton “is not part of any plan that I am aware of.�

Assessments of Assembly races, by both parties, echo pledges of responsible, issue-oriented campaigns.

And then things like this are said:

“We have pictures showing Democratic candidates with Clinton,� said a Republican Assembly campaign advisor. “We may use them. We may not. We’re waiting to see how [the Clinton factor] plays out.�

It’s a plus, said the advisor, “that we don’t have a president to defend.�

A few blocks away in Democratic campaign offices, “there is no evidence that the president is being generalized to other candidates,� said Darry Sragow, the Assembly Democrats’ campaign manager.

But he said he watches private polling “continually,� on alert for any sign of a voter mood swing.

Villaraigosa said it’s “time to move on� from obsession with Clinton. “I’ve made mistakes in my life too,� he said.

But he said he is taking no chances that voters are just as forgiving.

To avoid another 1994, the speaker said, there will be a “massive effort� to get Latinos to the polls--which helps Democrats. Among other inducements for all voters to cast ballots, he said, is the record $9.2-billion school bond that the Legislature placed on the November ballot.

Still, the speaker said, “this will be a very close election, no question about it.�

With the balance of power resting on the outcome in just a handful of races, both parties are aiming their campaign fire at targeted districts, with projected spending close to $20 million in Assembly races alone.

In Senate contests, the GOP has targeted three open seats previously occupied by Democratic Sens. Ruben Ayala of Chino, Leroy Greene of Sacramento and Mike Thompson of St. Helena. Democrats have their sights on Cannella’s opponent, Sen. Richard Monteith (R-Modesto).

Democrats also say they are taking a serious run at one of the state’s most well-heeled elected officials, state Sen. Rob Hurtt of Garden Grove. Against millionaire Hurtt’s checkbook and his natural advantage as the incumbent, Democrats point to pluses for challenger Joseph Dunn, a lawyer, that include a rising Latino--and therefore Democratic--voting population in the Orange County district.

One result of that, in part, was the victory in 1996 of Democrat Loretta Sanchez over incumbent Republican Rep. Bob Dornan. Sanchez’s congressional district overlaps more than half of Hurtt’s state Senate district. In the same year, a Democrat came within 100 votes of defeating Assemblyman Jim Morrissey of Anaheim, whose district also covers half of Hurtt’s.

Latino Wins May Boost Assembly Ranks

Besides Hurtt, Democrats again have Morrissey in their sights for November. His challenger, the same as two years ago, is Latino lawyer Lou Correa.

A Correa win would add to the Democrats’ 14-to-1 edge over Republicans in Latino Assembly representation. But Republicans are expected to raise their Latino numbers in the Assembly to as many as five after November, because of likely victories by Latino Republicans in safe GOP districts.

Similarly, women in Assembly GOP ranks, only three to the Democrats’ 17 during the last two years, seems certain to rise at least by two and possibly as many as six.

On other Assembly battlegrounds, three tight races are grouped in coastal and southern parts of Los Angeles County: in seats being vacated by Republican Steve Kuykendall of Rancho Palos Verdes, who is leaving to run for Congress; by Democrat Debra Bowen of Marina del Rey, who is being forced out by term limits but is running for the state Senate, and the neck-and-neck Havice-Hawkins race in a Downey-to-Long Beach district.

In the Kuykendall seat, Republican Julie Alban goes into the race with a gripping personal story to tell. Alban was shot a decade ago by a former boyfriend despondent over their breakup. The man, who turned the gun on himself, survived and went on to become a tennis pro, while Alban was left a quadriplegic in a wheelchair.

A Long Beach city prosecutor today, Alban specializes in domestic violence cases, with the gunshot incident “guiding my life and the reason I became a prosecutor.�

Of her Assembly candidacy, Alban said, “I may be sitting down but I’m going to pursue my dreams.�

Alban enjoys a funding edge in the race, thanks to help from her wealthy parents.

Her opponent, City Councilman Alan Lowenthal, has his own campaigning points, including a string of benefits he obtained for Long Beach, including his role in creating the city’s highly rated aquarium.

“Experience and leadership� are his strengths, said Lowenthal, a professor of psychology at Cal State Long Beach.

“I’ve been a part of [the] turning around of this region, which was in a terrible funk� when he came to the City Council in 1992.

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Key Legislative Races

Here are some of the close races for the state Senate and Assembly, where results could change the balance of power in the Legislature.

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Senate

Capital clash: The Republicans’ No. 1 effort to replace a Democrat takes place in Sacramento’s District 6 in the race between Democrat Deborah Ortiz, who left the Assembly to run, and Chris Quackenbush, the well-funded wife of Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush.

World of Hurtt: Millionaire Sen. Rob Hurtt (R-Garden Grove) must overcome the effects of growing numbers of Democratic voters, mostly Latinos, in his Orange County District 34 to prevent an upset by Democratic challenger Joseph Dunn, a lawyer.

Inland face-off: Outgoing Assemblyman Joe Baca (D-Rialto) faces Chino Mayor Eunice Ulloa, a Republican, in a battle for District 32, covering a large swath of the Inland Empire, where Republicans tend to dominate. Baca’s backers pin their hopes on the fact that veteran Democrat Ruben Ayala held this seat for more than 20 years.

Central Valley duel: Ex-Assemblyman Sal Cannella, a Democrat, takes on incumbent Republican Dick Monteith of Modesto in Senate District 12, stretching from the Central Valley to Yosemite. Cannella is conservative, Monteith even more so in this heavily agricultural area. A Cannella win would be an upset.

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Assembly

Main event: Assemblywoman Sally Havice (D-Cerritos) versus Phil Hawkins, a Republican who in the past has held the seesawing District 56 seat in south Los Angeles County. It’s the Republicans’ No. 1 targeted Assembly race.

Professor vs. Prosecutor: Republican Julie Alban, a city prosecutor, and Democrat Alan Lowenthal, a college professor and city councilman, both of Long Beach, face off in District 54. Former incumbent Steven T. Kuykendall (R-Rancho Palos Verdes) resigned to run for Congress.

South Bay clash: The departure of termed-out Assemblywoman Debra Bowen, a Marina del Rey Democrat now running for the state Senate, sets up the District 53 race between Democrat George Nakano, the mayor of Torrance, and Bill Eggers, a Republican author with connections to Libertarian institutions.

Great Scott: In another former GOP stronghold, Pasadena-La Crescenta District 44, Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbent Jack Scott of Altadena. Crime and guns are heartfelt issues of both Scott and GOP challenger Ken LaCorte, a medical supply dealer. Scott lost a son to an accidental gunshot. LaCorte’s sister and her boyfriend were murdered during a mountain hiking outing.

Lucky break: Republicans also targeted for defeat Democratic incumbent Scott Wildman in neighboring Burbank-Glendale District 43, but GOP hopes nose-dived with disclosures that Republican challenger Peter Repovich, an LAPD officer, had been disciplined for sexual harassment of a female officer.

Could be close: Two years ago Democrats came within 93 votes of ousting incumbent Jim Morrissey in Orange County District 69. Democrats will take him on again with the same candidate, lawyer Lou Correa, a Latino in a district of rising Latino population.

Star power: Actor Chris Mitchum, Republican son of the late star Robert Mitchum, faces lawyer and family issues advocate Hannah-Beth Jackson, a Democrat, in Central Coast District 35, which covers most of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.