Candidates Bait Their Hooks and Don Their Waders

SACRAMENTO — The best way to think of the contest for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination is to visualize three fishing holes. The dilemma for Lt. Gov. Gray Davis and Rep. Jane Harman is that they are fishing out of the same hole.

Businessman Al Checchi is casting into a second pool of voters, and Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren the third.

Of course, this is wide open water--an open primary--and the candidates occasionally will move from hole to hole, trying different bait. But each has a favorite spot that he or she finds most productive.

Each pool contains distinctively different fish. Davis and Harman are going after hard-core Democrats. Lungren is reeling in Republicans. And Checchi? He has been luring a hybrid species.

It has been frustrating lately for Harman, as it was earlier in the spring for Davis. Her fish have been getting away. She has hooked and lost many. And what she has lost, Davis has picked up--just as Davis, for a while, had been losing voters to Harman.

As Davis’ fish string grows, Harman’s gets smaller. Checchi’s fervent hope is that his two Democratic rivals will wind up with the same size catch. Then, presumably, he’ll finish with more fish than either and win the derby prize: their party’s nomination for governor.

*

The independent Public Policy Institute of California has been tracking all this through polling. In early April, it found Harman leading Davis by 18% to 12% among likely voters. A month later, the voter pool was virtually the same size, but there was a dramatic reversal in each candidate’s share of votes: Davis had 23% and Harman only 8%.

In both polls, Checchi had 19% and Lungren 23%.

A Times poll in early April found additional evidence that Davis and Harman were fishing out of the same pool. When Davis supporters were asked about their second choice for governor, the favorite (38%) was Harman. Even more telling, as it turns out, nearly half of Harman’s supporters (46%) said their second choice was Davis.

Mark Baldassare, pollster for the Public Policy Institute, has uncovered several similarities between Davis and Harman voters that set them apart from Checchi backers. For example:

* Roughly 40% of Davis-Harman voters oppose Proposition 227, which would virtually end bilingual education; only 23% of Checchi backers do.

* About 40% of Davis-Harman voters favor private school vouchers, but an overwhelming 64% of Checchi backers do.

* Roughly 70% of Davis-Harman voters support Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, but just 44% of Checchi’s backers do.

* Davis-Harman voters, compared to Checchi backers, also are significantly more content with President Clinton and more supportive of abortion rights.

“People attracted to Checchi’s candidacy are really different from your typical voter in a Democratic primary,” Baldassare says. “As a group, they’re considerably more conservative than people who are voting for Harman or Davis. That’s because more than a quarter are Republican.”

But, he adds, Checchi supporters also tend to be younger and have lower incomes than Davis-Harman voters. They watch more TV--most have seen his ads--and they’re less likely to vote.

Two-thirds of Checchi’s backers live in the L.A. TV market, compared to less than 40% of the people who support Davis and Harman. Those two find good fishing in the San Francisco Bay Area.

*

I called the Davis camp to see how he plans to keep Harman from poaching his fish. “We’re not worried,” said chief strategist Garry South. “She had her window of opportunity and the window closed on her hand.”

Commented Harman’s campaign manager, Kam Kuwata: “Jane needs help from Al Checchi. He’s got to beat the crap out of Gray. If Checchi continues to beat up on Gray, people may look at Jane. . . . They want to know what she stands for and they’re going to hear a lot in the next two weeks.”

She’ll need to offer more interesting bait--be bold and be specific, as she was in last week’s debate.

Checchi sounded the most liberal in that debate, a sign that he’s trying to move in on the Davis-Harman fishing hole. “The hard-core Democrats have been bouncing around. That tells you they’re uncertain,” says Checchi strategist Darry Sragow.

“Right now it’s a contest anybody can win.”

This derby ends June 2. And it’s a catch and release deal. All the fish will have to be hooked again in November.