Waxing Prophetic and, Sometimes, Pathetic

Unimpeachable sources? We got ‘em. The weekly testimony in Whatever’s Hollywood hearings has come from both sides of the aisle--veteran stars and sizzling newcomers, industry power-brokers and rebel outsiders. Did their predictions, picks, pontifications and pet peeves of 1998 pan out? What’s in their crystal ball for 1999? Read on. . . . You’ll laugh. You’ll cry. You’ll turn the page when you’re done.

HANKY PANKY: Might be time to buy stock in Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Kleenex. “Titanic,” to many Whateverians, was just the tip of the iceberg for weepers, with more tear-stained scripts circulating this year than Monica Lewinsky jokes.

* “There’s a plethora of love stories floating around now. I wouldn’t mind a real good love story, a real tear-jerker. There’s nothing like having a good cry--especially one where I can wear a corset.”

--Hope Davis, rising star of “Next Stop, Wonderland”

* “I’m kind of proud of America that a movie like [“Titanic”] can have substance and wide appeal. I hope it opens the door and budgets to the idea that people are not as dumb as some people think they are.”

--Frank Coraci, director of “The Wedding Singer” and “The Waterboy”

* “I think people want to believe in romance, dreams and hope--some sort of spirituality inside.”

--”Hope Floats” director Forest Whitaker

GIRL POWER: One of the big trends to watch out for, judging by what’s drawing the Whatever script trackers’ attention, revolves around female-centric stories.

* “There’s a lot of scripts where the girl wants to have a baby and hires a guy or offers money or something. There’s like 12 of them I’ve seen.”

--director Penny Marshall

* “The scripts I read are really young-girl-driven stories, which is interesting that there are any available. That’s an exciting trend--ones that aren’t horror movies.”

--Natasha Lyonne, teen star of “The Slums of Beverly Hills”

YOUNG LOVE: Teen romance is also on the horizon, according to Whatever subjects.

* “I see a lot of teenage romantic comedies, the ‘90s teenage angst, trials and tribulations, like ‘Can’t Hardly Wait.’ The studio people all of a sudden realized that teenagers go see movies. Every Friday night that’s what 13- to 18-year-olds do--at least where I’m from.”

--Jonathan Taylor Thomas, star of “I’ll Be Home for Christmas”

LIGHTS, CAMERA, LESS ACTION: One thing that may have peaked is action escalation.

* “I’ve read 35 scripts in the last five weeks. Of course, anything I [direct] for my first one will be action-oriented, but many of the scripts I’ve read have too much action. Can you keep that pace with an audience? They’ll be exhausted.”

--Kenny Bates, action coordinator for “Armageddon”

SMART CHOICES: Picking out rising stars is a hit-or-miss proposition, but several Whatever panelists were right on target with at least two of their picks:

* Giovanni Ribisi--Several panelists had their eye on Ribisi, who moved from playing a disaffected teen in “subUrbia” and Phoebe’s dim brother on “Friends” to a spotlight showcase in “Saving Private Ryan.” And now there are great expectations for him in the Garry Marshall-directed “The Other Sister,” in which he and Juliet Lewis co-star as a mentally challenged couple, with Diane Keaton and Tom Skerritt. “When I saw ‘Saving Private Ryan,’ I couldn’t believe how great Giovanni Ribisi is. Those scenes broke my heart. He’s unbelievable,” said Ted Demme, director of “Monument Ave.” and the upcoming “Life.”

* Cate Blanchett--Director Gillian Armstrong predicted big things for Blanchett, who starred in her “Oscar and Lucinda.” Armstrong was right--though it was for “Elizabeth,” not “Oscar and Lucinda,” that Blanchett got a Golden Globe best actress nomination and is considered an Oscar candidate.

HOT TODDIES: Among the hot young directors singled out for attention were Todd Haynes and Todd Solondz. And indeed, each came out with high-profile and sometimes controversial films in ‘98--”Velvet Goldmine” and “Happiness,” respectively.

* “There are so many great filmmakers today--Todd Solondz, Todd Haynes, Hal Hartley. The young generation is doing a wonderful job, making cutting-edge movies and scaring my generation and making us nervous, and that’s their job.”

--John Waters, director of “Pecker”

NEXT IN LINE: So who’s going to break through in ‘99? Here’s one possibility.

* “John Cameron Mitchell has a one-man show off Broadway, a rock musical for one called ‘Hedwig and the Angry Inch.’ There’s a complete feeding frenzy for the movie rights; every indie film company is wining and dining him.”

[The winning suitor? New Line, with development in progress.]

--actor B.D. Wong, who did a vocal star turn in “Mulan”

EATEN WORDS: Sometimes even a sure-fire box-office monster turns tail.

* “ ‘Godzilla’ looks like a fun ride.” --Frank Coraci

* “I’ve looked in the future and don’t find much. . . . ‘Godzilla’ is the only big event movie.”

--industry analyst John Krier

* “The creators of . . . ‘Godzilla’ have an intuitive sense of the icons that you can build your campaign around.”

--Bob Israel, producer of the “Godzilla” trailers

BUDGET CRISIS: Farewell to the middle class, say our experts. Predictions all year long were that movies will either be high-rolling blockbuster hopefuls or low-risk left fielders.

* “The ‘Titanic’ success will drive budgets up. I don’t want to make $200-million movies--not that there’s any danger of that at this point. But 10 years down the line, everything will either have to be a huge event movie or something under $10 million, with nothing in between.”

--Alex Proyas, director of “Dark City”

* “I don’t see how movies will become any cheaper. We’ve created an incredible appetite in the eyes of the public for these technical accomplishments, and these big films give them that. How can you offer them less?”

--Bob Rehme, movie producer and president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

* “They’ll always keep topping the biggest budget. The next big goal is, ‘Who will make the first billion-dollar movie?’ I bet that’s within five years, and it will probably be by James Cameron.”

--Frank Coraci

* “A lot of people in Hollywood figure you ain’t a big star if you don’t make a $100-million movie. I don’t care. If the movie makes dollars for me, it makes sense. I’d rather make money on a $1-million movie than lose it on a $100-million movie.”

--hip-hop entrepreneur Master P, the star, director and producer of “I Got the Hook-Up”

INTERLOPERS: Meanwhile, the low-budget indies crowd is finding itself getting crowded out by slumming pretenders.

* “They’re not really independents anymore. Budgets are higher. The revolving doors in theaters move faster, so they’re not as apt to keep small films and let them get word of mouth. . . . Actresses who did bigger movies than I have are getting ‘independents.’ To get independents you have to do bigger stuff. That wasn’t the case two or three years ago.”

--actress Lili Taylor, queen of the indies, who was in “Ill Town” and “The Impostors” this year

A QUOTE WE JUST LIKED: “I’ve got to face reality--I’m a 48-year-old man. I’m a character guy. I feel like Tom Cruise, but I look like Howdy Doody.”

--actor William H. Macy, who had roles this year in “Pleasantville,” “Psycho” and “A Civil Action”

THE LAST WORD: John Krier, president of Exhibitor Relations Co. (the folks that give us the box-office figures each week) passed away in June at the age of 89, just four months after being featured in Whatever. Let’s close this recap with a bit of his perspective on the Internet’s threat to movies:

* “I remember when night baseball started, and that was seen as a threat to movies. Even flagpole sitting. These things, time after time, affected business, but it always rebounded.”

Besides writing the Whatever column, Steve Hochman is a regular contributor to Calendar.