No Long Lines Are Expected at the Polls

Ventura County officials are predicting a 45% voter turnout for Thousand Oaks’ recall and school bond measure elections Tuesday, and an even slimmer turnout for Ventura’s City Council election.

In Thousand Oaks, where Councilwoman Elois Zeanah faces ouster and the Conejo Valley Unified School District is asking voters to consider a $97-million school bond measure, about 15% of the city’s 70,323 registered voters have turned in absentee ballots, said Bruce Bradley, the county’s elections chief.

Although that is a high number of absentees for a special election, Bradley said he expects less than half of Thousand Oaks voters to cast ballots. He cautioned, however, that the actual figure is impossible to estimate because there is no precedent for the Zeanah ouster election, the first council recall to make the ballot in Thousand Oaks’ 33-year history.

“When we have presidential elections, we have years of history to work with,” Bradley said. “With a recall and school bond, we don’t have that history. It’s a real wild card. This is a real unpredictable deal.”

Meanwhile in Ventura, only about 9% of the city’s 63,216 registered voters had turned in absentee ballots, which could signal a lack of concern regarding the race for four City Council seats. Bradley predicts only 40% of Ventura voters will cast ballots Tuesday, and believes the number could be even lower.

“I don’t think the issues in the Ventura council race are all that interesting,” Bradley said. “I don’t see a lot of people pushing to make their voice heard on that one.”

Of the 463,817 people in Ventura County who can legally vote, 83% are registered to do so--the highest percentage in Southern California and the eighth-highest in the state, Bradley said. The current total of 385,626 registered voters also ranks as the county’s highest number ever, he added.

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In last year’s presidential election, however, only 65% of the 382,000 county residents registered to vote actually cast ballots--the lowest number for a presidential race since county officials began keeping records in 1920. Because Tuesday’s election comes in an off year, voter turnout should be significantly lower.

Turnout for Tuesday’s four other school bond measure elections in Ojai, Moorpark, El Rio and Camarillo is also difficult to predict, Bradley said. But if recent history and absentee balloting are any indication, fewer than 25% of voters in those areas will take part in the elections, and possibly far less, he said.

In March, for instance, turnout ranged from just 13% for the Hueneme Elementary School District’s $4.7-million bond to 30% for the Fillmore Unified School District’s $12-million bond. Both measures passed.

Absentee ballots often make the difference in such elections, Bradley said. In June, for instance, more than half of those who supported the Ventura Unified School District’s successful $81-million bond measure were absentee voters.

One area where the school bond turnout could be significantly higher this time is Camarillo, where the Pleasant Valley School District is asking voters to consider a school bond measure for the fifth time since 1991.

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Hoping that more voters means success, the district has launched a get-out-the-vote drive for its latest, $49-million bond. Supporters will be walking precincts today, and on Monday they plan to call voters who have expressed support for the measure in previous phone polls, reminding them to cast ballots. It takes a two-thirds vote to pass a school bond.

“It’s in our best interest to get people to come out,” Associate Supt. Howard Hamilton said. “That’s the only way you can win one of these elections, because it only takes one no vote to counter two yes votes.”

Conejo Valley Unified could suffer from having the highly contentious Thousand Oaks recall on the same ballot as its school bond, Hamilton predicted. Pleasant Valley faced a similar situation several years ago when its school bond measure shared the ballot with a successful effort to recall members of the Camrosa Water District, he said.

“It hurt us when they had that recall election,” Hamilton said. “People were angry, and we believe they lumped education in with the whole thing. It will probably hurt them [Conejo Valley Unified], unfortunately.”

The Committee for Measure Q, the group promoting Conejo Valley Unified’s bond measure, also plans to hit the streets today to remind voters to cast ballots Tuesday.

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Groups on both sides of the Zeanah recall as well as in the school district worked to register new voters whom they suspected would be sympathetic to their cause. Yes! Remove Elois Zeanah was by far the most successful, registering 1,555 new voters.

Councilwoman Linda Parks, who heads the rival Committee Against the Recall of Elois Zeanah (CARE), said she believes most Thousand Oaks residents are behind its efforts. But she wonders if those residents will show up Tuesday.

“I personally think the popular sentiment is with us, I really do,” said Parks, who is planning a rally next to the Civic Arts Plaza at noon Sunday complete with an Abe Lincoln impersonator and apple pie. “The question is, if just a select segment of the population votes, will that represent the majority? I am a little worried about that.”