Mexicans’ View of U.S. Positive but Skeptical

MEXICO CITY â€”  Despite lingering suspicion of their superpower neighbor, Mexicans tend to view the United States far more favorably than Americans view Mexico, a new poll has found. Still, Mexican perceptions of the United States have deteriorated in the past five years.

And in a nation where unemployment and inflation are citizens’ overriding concerns, an overwhelming majority of Mexicans views the issue of immigration entirely differently from Americans: They believe that tougher law enforcement on the U.S. side of the border will not stop illegal immigration from Mexico.

In fact, at a time when nearly all Mexicans believe their economy is still in the grip of a crisis that began more than 20 months ago, 84% say more jobs and economic development in Mexico are needed to slow the migrant flow to the north. Nearly 40% of the Americans agree, but an almost equal number say the solution is stricter border control and law enforcement in the United States.

These are among the findings of a survey last month by The Times and the Mexico City newspaper Reforma, which together looked at how the two peoples view their own societies as well as how each views the other.

The results of 1,500 random interviews throughout Mexico and 1,572 in the United States reveal a wide gap in the views of Mexicans and Americans on virtually every vital issue, including drugs and the North American Free Trade Agreement. The margin of sampling error for both surveys is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Analysts say the perception gap should warn governments on both sides of the border that even tougher times may lie ahead in a relationship that has swung radically during more than 200 years.

“There are a lot of indications here that, very possibly, we have an era of strained relations ahead,� concluded Nancy Belden, head of the Washington polling firm Belden & Russonello. She has extensive experience in Mexico and was a consultant to the Times/Reforma poll.

Mexican analyst Jorge G. Castaneda, co-author of the book “Limits of Friendship,� which in 1988 examined U.S.-Mexican relations, said the new survey results demonstrate “a fundamental misunderstanding� between the two peoples.

On the immigration issue that perhaps most bedevils this relationship, for example, the findings may surprise some Americans.

The snapshot of public opinion in a nation that sends hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants into or through California and other border states each year found that about three-fourths of the Mexicans surveyed had never been to the United States. Of those who had, only a third had worked there.

But 52% said they have a family member now living in the United States. Nine percent said they get, or someone in their household gets, money from a relative working north of the border. Only one in five said that a member of their family would probably seek work in the United States in the year ahead.

Although about three in five Mexicans maintain a favorable impression of the United States, their positive view has declined over the past five years. A similar poll by The Times in 1991 showed that nearly three-quarters of the Mexicans interviewed said they thought favorably of the United States. When Americans were asked how they viewed their southern neighbor, less than half said “favorably.�

When asked their opinion of the American people, far fewer Mexicans answered favorably last month (42%) than in 1991 (55%). About half the Mexicans interviewed cited “racial discrimination� when asked what they dislike most about the United States. And half said the United States wields too much cultural influence over Mexico.

Almost one in five Mexicans (19%) and slightly fewer Americans (16%) said they believe relations between the two nations are improving. More than a quarter of Mexicans think relations are getting worse, compared with 16% of Americans, but at least a plurality of both nations think relations are staying the same.

Castaneda and Belden agreed that the Times/Reforma survey casts a truer picture of the relationship than the results in 1991, a year when expectations for NAFTA and the Mexican economy were at their peak.

“This is more realistic,� Castaneda said. “The main reason most Mexicans supported NAFTA, for example, was they felt it would help them work in the United States. And that, of course, hasn’t happened.�

“The period of 1991 was a sort of wonderful one,� added Belden. “Mexicans thought things were getting better. But today, the economic situation is so horrific for so many Mexicans, and the border relationship has deteriorated to the extent that it imbues their attitudes. The administrations on both sides of the border have to be on high alert.�

The way Mexicans and Americans view their own economies helps explain the decline in relations--and the Mexicans’ belief that more jobs south of the border could stop illegal immigration.

A full 95% of the Mexicans said they are living in an economic crisis. Asked a comparable question, less than half of the Americans characterized the U.S. economic environment as a recession. Nearly two-thirds of Mexicans said their personal economic situation is worse than it was three years ago, while 43% of the Americans said their personal economic situation is better than it was in 1993.

As Pablo Ayala, a 50-year-old widower who was among the Mexicans surveyed, said in a subsequent interview: “There are no jobs here, and people have to leave to get jobs.

“Every day, the Americans are getting tougher. They are putting up steel walls by the border,� he said. “But there are just so many people who want to go there . . . because supposedly the United States is the best alternative if you want to improve your personal economy.�

Yet, asked Bertha Rogers, 70, who was interviewed in St. Francis, Ga., “How can we help Mexicans to get jobs in their country when we can’t even get jobs for our own people here? If we didn’t give Mexicans so many freebies--like free education and health care--maybe a lot of them wouldn’t come. . . . Maybe more law enforcement on the border would be part of the solution, but it wouldn’t be complete.�

In what analysts say reveals a feeling that life in Mexico has become so bad it cannot get worse, Mexicans appeared more optimistic about their future economy than the Americans are about theirs. One-fourth of the Mexicans interviewed said they expect the next generation to have a better living standard than they have, while just 18% of the Americans said their next generation will fare better.

“You reach the point where you’re just so far down, you can’t go any lower,� said Rafael Gimenez Valdes, director of polling for Reforma, who has conducted dozens of Mexican polls during the past decade. “And I think that’s what you’re seeing in these results.�

On balance, though, the survey showed that far more Mexicans (79%) than Americans (59%) believe their own country is on the wrong track. A more recent Times Poll this month showed that 48% of Americans thought their country is on the wrong track.

“The only solution would be for the government to set higher wages and create more jobs,� concluded Carla Romo, a 22-year-old student interviewed for the poll in Mexico City, when asked later about the twin issues of the Mexican economy and illegal migration.

Predictably, perhaps, the survey also found similarly sharp differences in how Mexicans and Americans view other aspects of their nations’ relationship--and the way their leaders are handling it.

On the controversial issue of narcotics trafficking, which President Zedillo has identified as the biggest threat to Mexico’s national security, far more Mexicans approved of his handling of anti-drug enforcement than Americans approved of President Clinton’s counter-narcotics strategy--even though the two presidents’ approaches are essentially the same.

Nearly 60% of Mexican respondents said they approve of how Zedillo is combating drug trafficking. But of Clinton’s drug-enforcement effort, 43% of the Americans disapproved, while only 37% approved. U.S. officials estimate that three-fourths of the cocaine sold in America travels through Mexico, where there are far fewer drug users than in the United States.

“Drugs aren’t an issue here the way they are in America,� said a Mexican who was surveyed but asked that his name not be used. “America is where the market is. The drug users are there. The problem is there.�

On NAFTA, the agreement that took effect Jan. 1, 1994, to free up trade among Mexico, the United States and Canada, the differences of opinion were as sharp as the economic disparities.

In Mexico, about three-fourths said the free-trade treaty has either been bad for them personally or had no effect. Although nearly half still said they support it, the numbers have declined from those who backed it five years ago.

Mexican analysts said those findings result from two factors: the economic crisis, which has slowed NAFTA’s impact on Mexico; and irrational expectations for the treaty in 1991.

Nearly half of the Americans, though, said they think Mexico has fared better from NAFTA than has the United States. A majority said NAFTA has taken away U.S. jobs, while just 6% said it has generated jobs north of the border.

“Mexicans seem to get the most out of it,� said Elmer Gerdts, 73, a retired factory worker and farmer who was surveyed in Clarenda, Iowa. “They’re taking our companies and our jobs, so it seems they’re coming out ahead. Maybe we’re getting the benefit of cheap labor, but I still don’t think it has done much good for our country.�

The actual impact of more than two years of NAFTA is unclear. Both the Clinton and Zedillo administrations have cited job-growth figures to support their joint view that both nations are benefiting. Critics in both countries, though, offer their own statistics and say the treaty either has had no impact or has hurt their nations.

The survey in Mexico confirmed that the jury is still out: 28% said NAFTA has been mainly good for Mexico; 28% said it has been mainly bad, and 33% said it has been neither good nor bad.

Almost as striking were the differences in the way the neighbors ranked problems in their nations and their personal lives.

The Mexicans said they were most troubled by their economy, inflation, corruption and bad government. Only 3% cited poor education, and just 3% said drugs. In America, crime, drugs, morality, unemployment and the economy were the most frequently mentioned worries, with just 2% of the Americans citing corruption and 3% listing illegal immigration among the most important problems facing the United States today.

In Mexico’s major cities, however, concern about crime more closely parallels America’s worries.

The survey found that, in the Mexican capital, one in five people said they or a relative had been the victim of a crime in the past 12 months. Nationwide, half of the Mexicans said they feel unsafe walking alone at night. Crime rates throughout Mexico, especially the capital, have soared as much as 150% since the economic crisis set in.

More than two-thirds of all the Americans said they feel safe walking alone at night, and just 6% said someone in their household has been a crime victim.

“There is a real lack of security,� said Hector Ramirez, a 24-year-old lawyer who was surveyed in Michoacan. “In my community, the residents had to come up with their own money to pay for police. In many places, the police only have two or three patrol cars.

“The tax money doesn’t go where it should. So . . , corruption is the biggest problem in Mexico.�

On the political front, more Americans approved of Clinton than Mexicans did of Zedillo, but 40% of the Mexicans primarily blamed their government for what they say is a moral decline in their country.

Still, Zedillo’s approval rating of 50% in the poll--although low for a sitting Mexican president--marked his highest popularity as measured by opinion polls since before he devalued Mexico’s peso in December 1994, triggering the nation’s worst economic crisis in modern history. To explain the improvement, analysts cited other findings that showed most Mexicans believe recent government predictions that their lives will improve in the years ahead.

Zedillo’s government has released figures showing that the economy grew 3% in the second quarter of this year, and the president predicted 4% growth that will produce thousands more jobs in 1997.

“I do think there will be more jobs,� said Ayala, who lives in the village of Tepoztlan outside the capital. He told interviewers that he feels Mexico’s economy and his own life will improve in three years. “But I have hope that we won’t have the same government,� he said.

Student Romo disagreed: “I hope that my situation will be better, but I don’t think it will be. The economy of this country is getting worse and worse. I dream of having power and a lot of things, but . . . even if I study and do a thousand things, I can’t push the rest of the country, with its millions of people, out of the crisis.�

But Romo was among those who said she does not aspire--and has no plans--to work in the United States. “Maybe it would improve my life, but maybe not,� she said. “People say that to earn dollars must be fabulous, but they don’t realize they also must spend in dollars.�

When Mexicans were asked what they liked most about America, nearly one in four cited “economic opportunities,� followed by the fact that the United States is “a rich country.� Just 6% listed democracy among America’s strong points, 5% said its efficient and innovative population, and 4% cited equality for all. More than 20% said they like nothing about the United States.

“I think that people here believe that living in the United States must be the best because they see movies, and they see all the money and luxuries, and they say, ‘That’s what I want,’ � Romo said. “Well, anyone would want that stuff, even me. But for me, the basic thing is education.�

Ayala added: “I do think the United States is better than here. . . . There, a worker earns $5 an hour. Here, we earn $5 a day. This is the big difference.�

Acting Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus and Helena Sundman of The Times Mexico City Bureau contributed to this report.

Saturday: How Mexicans view themselves.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

A Tale of Two Nations

Responses to a Times/Reforma poll show how Mexicans and Americans view themselves and each other. More questions, A6

Are things in [your] country going in the right direction or seriously off on the wrong track?

MEXICO

Right direction*: 14%

Wrong track: 79%

Don’t know: 7%

****

U.S.

Right direction**: 42%

Wrong track: 48%

Don’t know: 10%

* Asked in August Times/Reforma Poll

** Asked in September L.A. Times Poll

Source: Los Angeles Times/Reforma Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Neighboring Views

Americans and Mexicans respond to a Times/Reforma poll:

MEXICO

Impression of U.S.

Favorable: 62%

Unfavorable: 28%

Don’t know: 10%

****

U.S.

Impression of Mexico

Favorable: 42%

Unfavorable: 36%

Don’t know: 22%

****

Personal economic situation compared with three years ago:

*--*

Mexico U.S. Better 12% 43% Worse 22% 31% Same 64% 26% Don’t know 2% --%

*--*

****

Relations between Mexico and U.S. are currently getting:

*--*

Mexico U.S. Better 19% 16% Worse 26% 16% Same 46% 54% Don’t know 9% 14%

*--*

****

The next generation of Mexicans/Americans will have:

*--*

Mexico U.S. Better standard of living 25% 18% Same 36% 46% Worse 26% 33% Don’t know 13% 3%

*--*

****

Your personal finances are going these days:

*--*

Mexico U.S. Well 43% 67% Badly 54% 32% Don’t know 3% 1%

*--*

****

Which of these do you believe could slow illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States:

*--*

Mexico U.S. More jobs and economic development in Mexico 84% 38% Tougher control of border 2% 19% Tougher enforcement against U.S. employers 4% 18%

*--*

-- Indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not add up to 100% where not all answer categories are shown.

HOW POLLS WERE CONDUCTED:

The Los Angeles times Poll in conjunction with the newspaper Reforma in Mexico City conducted polls in their respective countries. The following are the methodologies used for both polls. Nancy Belden of Belden & Russonello Inc. was a consultant to the project.

The Times Poll contacted 1,572 U.S. adults by telephone Aug. 3 through Aug. 6. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and party identification. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus three percentage points; for certain sub-groups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

The Reforma poll conducted face-to-face interviews with 1,500 Mexican adults in their homes from Aug. 1 through Aug. 7. The survey was conducted in 25 states nationwide. The sample was chosen randomly from a list of geostatistical areas of the entire country, provided by the 1990 census. Seventy-two percent of the sample corresponds to localities of 2,500 people or more, and 28% were localities with fewer than 2,500 people. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, age, education and size of locality. The margin of sampling error for both the Times and Reforma polls is plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be higher. Findings may be influenced by events that occur while the survey is in the field.

Source: Los Angeles Times/Reforma Poll