Yeltsin Edging Out Communist, but a Runoff Looms

MOSCOW â€”  President Boris N. Yeltsin turned an anti-Communist crusade into a moral victory over challenger Gennady A. Zyuganov in a come-from-behind reelection battle, with incomplete returns from Sunday balloting giving the incumbent the advantage heading into a high-stakes runoff next month.

In one of the most momentous decisions ever to confront Russians, disgruntled voters appeared to swallow hard and choose four more years of Yeltsin rule over the alternative of a retreat to communism.

With more than 70% of the ballots counted, Yeltsin was leading Zyuganov, 34% to 32%, according to the Central Election Commission.

An exit poll conducted by U.S. pollster Warren Mitofsky on behalf of Western media in Moscow, including The Times, forecast an even wider lead for the president. That survey of nearly 7,500 voters at 118 polling stations indicated 35% had supported Yeltsin compared with 29% for Zyuganov.

Retired Gen. Alexander I. Lebed was running a surprisingly strong third on his law-and-order platform, with about 15% of the vote in both official returns and the exit poll. The nationalist-patriot who has lately been negotiating with the Yeltsin camp over a possible second-round alliance is now poised to play kingmaker in the runoff, expected as early as July 3.

Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach), who was in Moscow overseeing elections, met Lebed and later described the former general as coming from the old “control style� politics. But Lebed, Cox said, has changed in recent years to a more liberal attitude.

Cox, who also visited Yeltsin’s Moscow campaign office, predicted that Lebed will most likely endorse Yeltsin and could be offered a high-ranking position in Yeltsin’s administration.

Cox described his trip as “a great time to be in Russia and see Russian history in the making.� He added that the election marked the “official death� of the country’s totalitarian system.

Liberal economist Grigory A. Yavlinsky had 8% of the vote and ultranationalist Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky 6%, and five longshot candidates--including former Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev--were disappearing into the political nether world with 1% or less each.

Most analysts predict a Yeltsin victory next month based on the apparent vote spread of the first round, but the news of the incumbent’s return from the political dead after a grueling four-month campaign was greeted with something less than jubilation.

“I do not like Yeltsin, but I like Zyuganov even less,� 33-year-old businessman Sergei P. Tumanovich said as he emerged from his polling place in southern Moscow. “I voted for the system of anti-communism, for Yeltsin. Communism would mean an end to my current lifestyle.�

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Yeltsin was nowhere to be seen once the returns began rolling in around midnight. Nor did Zyuganov surface in public to comment on the contest.

Outraged by a relatively poor turnout in the urban reform bastions of Moscow and St. Petersburg, the president’s campaign strategists bad-mouthed the chief benefactors of the economic transition for complacently lounging at their country homes instead of lining up to vote.

Prime Minister Viktor S. Chernomyrdin said those ignoring the ballot box put their future at risk “for an extra hour in front of the television or at dachas and gardens.�

Other Yeltsin supporters, however, expressed gratitude for the small miracle of a first-place showing after the 65-year-old president had fallen in nationwide approval ratings to a January nadir of 4%.

“Any advantage is a good advantage,� said Sergei A. Karaganov, a senior advisor in Yeltsin’s administration.

In Washington, the Clinton administration watched the returns closely but was not prepared to hail the early results even though they seemed to point toward a Yeltsin lead in the first round.

There is little doubt that the administration wants a Yeltsin victory. But U.S. officials have said a blatant endorsement could be regarded by voters as American interference in their domestic affairs.

Still, administration officials have not been shy about denouncing proposals by Zyuganov to renationalize industries and reconstitute the Soviet Union.

In Moscow, security was intense throughout election day, with flak-jacketed Interior Ministry troops standing guard with machine guns at all major intersections and outside government buildings. Police and special security forces patrolled the streets and the more than 150 subway stations, mobilized by fears of another terrorist incident like Tuesday’s bombing that left four subway riders dead.

One subway station in the area where Yeltsin voted was closed briefly in the early afternoon, prompting speculation that explosives had been discovered aboard a train. But police said later that the cause for alarm turned out to be smoldering electrical wires, and service was restored to the station after repairs.

Both Yeltsin and Zyuganov postured as the clear winner while casting their respective ballots in Moscow early in the day.

“All the votes will be ours� as long as the counting is conducted fairly, Zyuganov told journalists.

A buoyant Yeltsin showed up with his wife, Naina, at his polling place in the western suburb of Krylatskoye. Asked whether his Communist opponent could win, he boomed decisively: “No way!�

Yeltsin’s confidence was apparent in his declared intention of watching the crucial Russia-Germany European Cup soccer match on television Sunday night. But that game, which Germany won 3-0 to end Russia’s season, probably deprived Yeltsin of votes by riveting half the population to their television sets during the last few hours the polls were open, then leaving fans dispirited by the loss.

The estimated turnout of 70% was lower than had been expected across the federation that spans 11 time zones and two continents. Voting among the armed forces, however, was reported to have included 97% of all service personnel--probably in response to pressure from commanding officers loyal to the party in power.

Most of those who voted in the breakaway southern republic of Chechnya were federal troops who have been suppressing the independence drive there for the last 18 months. Controversial local elections to seat a regional parliament were also conducted over the last three days, occasionally disrupted by artillery and gunfire.

Even though polling stations in Chechnya had been open since Friday, election officials said only 21% of the half-million local electorate had turned out.

The Chechen community’s Moscow-installed leader, Doku Zavgayev, insisted on holding the parliamentary vote simultaneously with the presidential election, despite fears of renewed fighting and complete collapse of a truce patched together in the last days of the campaign.

In Moscow, voters also cast ballots for mayor and reelected incumbent Yuri M. Luzhkov with nearly 90% of the vote.

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Only the second free presidential election in Russian history--the first gave Yeltsin the reins of the Russian Federation in June 1991, before the Soviet Union collapsed--the vote was widely expected to require a second round because none of the 10 contenders was likely to win 50% or more.

Lebed, a popular war hero who has appealed to many Russians with vows to eradicate rampant crime and corruption, now faces a season of horse-trading as Yeltsin and Zyuganov vie for his supporters.

One influential Yeltsin ally, deputy parliament speaker Alexander N. Shokhin, said an alliance with Lebed was already in the works and that the charismatic general with ramrod posture and a booming bass voice may even join the incumbent’s camp before the runoff.

Opinion polls conducted a week or more before the election had suggested Lebed would win no more than 7% support, but surveys in the last few days gave him as much as 11%.

Yavlinsky hinted he was still open to negotiating with Yeltsin on a cooperative campaign for the second round. The runoff date depends on when final official results are published, but July 3, 7 or 14 have been suggested.

Yeltsin appeared likely to enjoy a strong position heading into the second round, but the vote has been far from a full endorsement of his leadership. Many voters simply saw him as the lesser of two evils.

In the provincial heartland city of Voronezh, a traditional Communist stronghold, a vote for the incumbent was an even more difficult decision.

“Just because I voted for Yeltsin doesn’t mean I like him. Not at all!� said Vladimir M. Kalganov, a 78-year-old pensioner. “But all the rest are even worse.�

Zyuganov was expected to carry “red belt� regions like Voronezh by a considerable margin.

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In addition to the 106 million registered voters in Russia, more than half a million Russians living abroad were eligible to vote.

At the Russian Embassy in Kiev, turnout was high and a straw poll suggested most voters were casting ballots for Yeltsin. Of 40 people questioned by The Times, 24 said they voted for the incumbent, compared with six for Zyuganov.

Times staff writers Vanora Bennett in Grozny, Russia, and Stanley Meisler in Washington, and special correspondent Mary Mycio in Kiev contributed to this report.

* COMMUNIST SETBACK: Russia’s Communist-nationalist tide ebbs dramatically. A8