CAMPAIGN ’96 : Preview of the Iowa Caucuses

The caucuses, which convene tonight, are the first major contest in the Republican presidential campaign.

The Race

Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, a longtime favorite among Iowa Republicans, is expected to win. But whether that gives the Kansan’s campaign a big boost will depend partly on his margin of victory. Publishing heir Steve Forbes surged here on the strength of his massive ad campaign, but he may have peaked. His lack of a state organization casts doubts on whether he can get out his vote. Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, commentator Patrick J. Buchanan and Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas are vying for a place among the top three finishers.

The Voters

Statewide Republican registration grew impressively over the last decade, changing the party’s complexion. Much of the rise was due to younger professionals drawn to Iowa by job opportunities and to social conservatives who have become more politically involved. The state’s 1.7 million registered voters are evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Des Moines suburbs: Younger, middle-class voters are concentrated here; Forbes’ showing may depend on whether they attend their caucuses.

Sioux County: With eight times more Republicans than Democrats, this is a conservative stronghold where Gramm and Buchanan hope to do well.

Dubuque: Tough anti-abortion stances have strong appeal for this area’s largely Roman Catholic voters.

Adair County: Voters in rural areas such as this are older and have traditionally backed Dole.

The People

Population

Total: 2,837,678

White: 95%

Black: 2%

Latino: 1%

Other: 1%

Median family income

Iowa: $32,326

U.S.: $34,761

Political Portrait

1992 presidential vote

Clinton: 43%

Bush: 37%

Perot: 19%

ELECTED OFFICIALS

Gov. Terry Branstad (R)

Sen. Charles Grassley (R)

Sen. Tom Harkin (D)

House delegation: 5 Republicans, 0 Democrats

Unemployment

Iowa: 3.2%

U.S.: 5.5%

Crime

Violent crimes per 100,000 population

Iowa: 315

U.S.: 716

DELEGATES SO FAR

Alexander: 0

Buchanan: 13

Dole: 0

Forbes: 0

Gramm: 8

Needed to Nominate: 996

At Stake Today: 25

THE PROCEDURE

1. Each of the 2,142 caucuses is called to order at 7 p.m. (5 p.m. PST). People who wish to participate can register as Republicans at the door. Caucus chairs and secretaries are elected.

2. Representatives of the presidential candidates may speak for one to two minutes. Other campaign representatives are permitted to attend and monitor the ballot process.

3. Balloting begins. The vote at GOP caucuses is done by straw poll, usually in secret.

4. Caucus chairs and precinct officials count ballots and notify the Voter News Service, an independent tallying group, of the results.

5. Caucus members proceed with local concerns, such as electing precinct committee members. They may also discuss issues relevant to the state party platform.

BY THE NUMBERS

Success in the Iowa caucuses is not necessarily a sure path to the presidential nomination, as some past Republican contests illustrate.

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1980 1988 1996 Iowa winner: George Bush Bob Dole ? Eventual nominee: Ronald Reagan George Bush ? Iowa GOP registration: 466,305 482,675 583,641 Caucus turnout: 106,051 108,805 130,000 (projected)

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Researched by ROB CIOE and MALOY MOORE / Los Angeles Times

Source: U.S. Census, Claritas Inc., various media sources