Gentle Rain Expected by Evening

In what weather forecasters call a mere echo of the storms that ravaged Orange County a year ago, the first rainfall of 1996 is expected to descend by this evening, with more determined wet weather soaking the region by the weekend.

“But no, it’s hardly a killer storm,� said Robb Kaczmarek, a forecaster with WeatherData Inc., who notes that the moisture headed for Southern California is a whisper of weather compared to the battering being inflicted on the Eastern Seaboard.

Nevertheless, Orange County remains wary of any January rainfall, considering what happened last year, in a weeklong siege of storms that began Jan. 4, when six inches of rain fell in less than two hours during a melee of an evening commute.

The ensuing deluge closed freeways and bridges, accounted for hundreds of traffic jams and accidents and cost the county more than $25 million in damage to roads and flood-control channels--only a portion of which has been approved by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, otherwise known as FEMA.

County officials estimate overall damage from the deluge of ’95 as being closer to $55 million, with almost a fourth of that sum coming from losses to private property, particularly in such hard-hit areas as Seal Beach, Buena Park, Garden Grove and Laguna Beach.

It became the wettest January on record, or at least since the county began recording rainfall totals in 1952. The final total topped 12 inches, surpassing the previous high of 11.47 inches, set in 1993.

Despite all that, the storm carried a silver lining. More so than similar downpours in 1969 and 1980, the relentless rain of ’95 heightened awareness about the need to prepare for and withstand major storms, according to Bill Reiter, public works operations manager for the county’s Environmental Management Agency.

“People in Orange County have come a long way in terms of storm preparation--1995 taught them how,� Reiter said. “The general public is more in tune with being prepared both psychologically and physically. We give away lots of sandbags and people in areas prone to slides know how to use them now and take advantage of them. It’s been a major turnaround.�

Today’s rain should arrive by late afternoon or early evening, Kaczmarek said, and will be visiting Orange County as the southern end of a much more severe storm that is saving its biggest punch for central and northern California.

“It’s an upper-level disturbance coming into the area with a cold front,� Kaczmarek said, “stretching across the central part of the state and descending south. It should be on the cool side, with temperatures in the 60s.

“As far as heavy rain goes, you shouldn’t get that in Orange County until the end of the week, say, Friday or Saturday,� he said.

But even so, “it shouldn’t be anything like what you had last year,� he added. “I would estimate that by the weekend, you’ll be getting three to four inches of rain and snow in the mountains.

“But think how lucky you are. You could be living back East.�