Is Pope Republican? Key to Voters Sought : Politics: Catholics, a fourth of the electorate, are 'up for grabs' in 1996 elections. But pontiff's visit highlights conflicts and diversity within church.

By RONALD BROWNSTEIN

Oct. 5, 1995 12 AM PT

TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

WASHINGTON — The same hands that applaud Pope John Paul II on his travels through America this week could decide the fate of the man who welcomed him to the United States: President Clinton.

Once a reliable cornerstone of the Democratic political coalition, Catholics have become a critical swing vote in American politics--and could hold the key to the results of next year’s congressional and presidential elections. “Among the large religious traditions,” says John C. Green, a University of Akron political scientist who specializes in religion, “they are the most up for grabs.”

Catholics loom as a crucial vote not only because of their numbers--they constitute more than one-fourth of the electorate--but due to their concentration in Midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, which both parties view as decisive battlegrounds in the presidential contest.

“Assuming Clinton can [do well] in California, the next target becomes the industrial Midwest, and Catholics become a group he has to go after,” says Ed Goeas, a Republican political pollster.

Political and religious observers expect the Pope to steer clear of anything approaching a direct comment on American politics during his trip to New York, New Jersey and Baltimore this week.

“The Pope is not coming here to be the chaplain to anyone’s politics,” said George Weigel, president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a conservative think tank in Washington. “Anyone who attempts to grab this for partisan purposes is ill-advised.”

Even so, the Pope’s stops are likely to underscore the Catholic community’s conflicting impulses and diverse opinions, which prevent either party from securing a dependable majority of their votes.

On the one hand, the Pope carries a culturally conservative message that emphasizes opposition to abortion and broadly tracks Republican themes. On the other, the Pope has stressed a message of social compassion that, although critical of dependency on government handouts, may be viewed as at least an implicit criticism of the Republican drive to reduce spending on social welfare programs.

“A consistent message of this Pope has been the need of both government and the private sector to make sure that poor people have what they need,” says Sharon Daly, deputy director for social policy at Catholic Charities U.S.A.

In neither of these messages does the Pope speak for all Catholics. Polls show that most American Catholics oppose a complete ban on abortion; indeed, Catholics’ opinions on abortion are not much different from those of members of other religious groups. And conservative Catholic voters, especially working-class men, have proved extremely receptive to Republican calls for reduced federal spending and requirements that welfare recipients work for their benefits.

But the basic combination of cultural conservatism and social obligation embodied in the Pope’s message defines the political outlook for many Catholics and leaves them open to appeals from both parties, experts say.

“They are conflicted,” says Stanley B. Greenberg, a Democratic political pollster who advises Clinton. “There is a strong populist, working-class, middle-class economic value which brings them to the Democratic Party; there is at the same time, a social-values concern that pulls them toward the Republicans.”

Both parties have run into conflict with Catholic leaders. After meetings with Clinton in 1993 and 1994, the Pope issued statements pointedly reaffirming his opposition to abortion--comments viewed as a rebuke of the President’s support for abortion rights.

In 1994, the Vatican clashed with American officials over a U.N. world population conference in Cairo that urged wider freedom of access to contraception and abortion. “Bill Clinton’s problem with Catholics is that all through 1993 and 1994 it appeared the Administration was at war with the church,” says Goeas, the Republican pollster.

During the recent U.N. conference on women, held in China, the Administration avoided conflict with the Vatican. Instead it has been the GOP that has found itself banging heads with U.S. Catholic leaders.

Catholic leaders fiercely oppose Republican welfare reform proposals to limit the federal aid for poor mothers with small children, including cutting off benefits after five years on the rolls and requiring states to deny additional benefits to women who have children while already on the rolls. Many observers credited opposition from Catholic leaders for the stunning 2-to-1-margin Senate vote last month rejecting the family cap, which the House has included in its version of welfare reform.

These conflicts underscore the fluid state of Catholic political loyalties. During the 1950s and 1960s, Democratic presidential candidates routinely carried a majority of Catholic votes. The erosion of Catholic support since then parallels the movement of evangelical Christians away from the Democratic Party.

But while evangelicals have moved all the way into a solid alliance with the GOP--casting 80% of their votes for Republican candidates in last fall’s congressional elections--Catholics as a group have stopped midway between the parties and now operate as a fulcrum between them.

In 1992, Clinton carried a plurality of Catholics en route to his victory over George Bush and Ross Perot. But two years later, Catholics swung sharply toward the GOP, advancing the Republican drive toward capture of Congress. Though Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 1988 carried a majority of Catholic votes in presidential campaigns, 1994 marked the first time in recent years that Republicans carried a majority of Catholic votes in congressional elections.

But the congressional vote does not appear to have signaled a lasting shift of allegiance.

In a recent Los Angeles Times Poll, Catholic voters split evenly when asked if they approve of the Republican Congress’ program--a showing that placed them midway between Jews, who were overwhelmingly negative, and non-Catholic Christians, who gave plurality support to the GOP blueprint. In the survey, Catholics gave Clinton a solid 56%-39% job approval rating--a showing that again placed them midway between Jews and non-Catholic Christians.

These numbers--like the past quarter-century of political history--point toward continued close competition between the parties for Catholic support, all the way through next year’s vote.