Wilson Tries to Get Back on Track : Politics: From its euphoric start, governor's presidential campaign has been beset by mistakes, bad luck and harsh reality.

By DAVE LESHER

Sept. 24, 1995 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

SACRAMENTO — The polls had closed just minutes before, Gov. Pete Wilson had quickly been declared a surprisingly easy reelection winner, and almost anything seemed possible. He strode into a mob of wildly cheering Republicans celebrating his improbable victory at a Los Angeles hotel and beamed as the ballroom echoed: “Pete in ‘96! Pete in ‘96! Pete in ‘96!”

In the weeks that followed, the encouragement to consider a presidential run spread--well-wishers, powerful Republicans and national pundits told the governor that his win was a credit to deft navigation of a host of problems that had nearly ended his political career.

Wilson apparently agreed. When he announced in March that he would seek the presidency despite a previous promise not to, he explained that he had “not just an opportunity, but a duty” to help the nation with the same decision-making skills he had shown in California.

Today, as his shattered campaign tries to piece itself back together, some say Wilson’s implosion is rooted in hubris developed during those euphoric days.

True, his White House bid has faced more than its share of bad luck and mistakes. Throat surgery that Wilson underwent this spring was supposed to prove a minor irritant; instead, it literally left him voiceless for several weeks. And in retrospect, Wilson clearly miscalculated how poorly the reversal of his pledge not to run for president would play in California.

But beyond these factors, even many of the governor’s supporters believe there was a fundamental underestimation about the task of running for president and a star-struck inflation of Wilson’s popularity.

“This is pretty classic what happened here,” said one national Republican observer who is friendly to Wilson. “They were brilliant in California, but they are in denial about how different a presidential race is.”

A longtime Wilson associate said: “He vastly overestimated what it takes to run in a presidential race. What he discovered is that the reality of the country is huge . . . and Pete Wilson was not known.”

Few are willing to write Wilson off yet, but the task facing his campaign is daunting.

“They’ve got to narrow their focus and they’ve got to stay focused on that narrow plan,” said one Republican presidential strategist. “There is a Wilson constituency. I don’t have the tombstone up yet like some people do. But there is no room for error in this candidacy.”

In the last two weeks, Wilson’s campaign has been staggered by an internal meltdown caused by the discovery of a $1-million debt.

The campaign’s master plan was immediately jettisoned. And in the staff shake-up that followed, Wilson’s national finance director was forced out Tuesday and George Gorton, the chief strategist in all four of his statewide victories--two for the U.S. Senate, two for governor--resigned after losing an internal power struggle.

Meanwhile, Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, the best-known national figure to back Wilson’s candidacy, is under pressure at home to spend more time in his state, restricting his availability to help the presidential campaign. But in an interview, Weld discounted rumors that he planned to abandon Wilson to launch his own bid next year for the U.S. Senate.

“I would not run out on Pete,” he said. “And I think doing both simultaneously would be difficult.”

At Wilson headquarters in Sacramento, Chairman Craig Fuller is working on a strategy that will keep the campaign operational with a much smaller work force and a sharply reduced daily budget in the hopes that the fluid presidential race will someday turn in their favor.

In the upcoming week, Wilson will attend a series of events in California aimed at improving his statewide standing (a recent Los Angeles Times poll found him trailing President Clinton by 19 percentage points).

Wilson strategists are still convinced that he has a powerful message based on his record in office and his mix of socially moderate and fiscally conservative issues. They are also encouraged that even the front-runner in the GOP race, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, has fallen in the polls of late.

Wilson’s severe problems, however, have confounded many of those who assessed his presidential chances last spring.

Rumors of his interest in the race early in the year prompted many national pundits to immediately rank him as a “top-tier” candidate. Ironically, two of the most important assets regularly attributed to him are the ones he is now struggling to rebuild--his fund-raising ability and a veteran campaign staff.

“I thought those two things were there,” said Iowa state Senate Majority Leader Jack Rife, who called Wilson early last spring to offer his help if he ran. “This is surprising to me.”

In retrospect, political observers and some Wilson supporters believe that the assumptions about fund-raising and staff talent kept campaign officials from focusing enough attention on both areas.

“The truth of it is that their expectations were unrealistic, they were silly,” said one California Republican strategist. “Pete’s unknown largely around the country. I just think they got caught up in the enthusiasm of the whole thing . . . and they bought the hype.”

Bill Kristol, a GOP political analyst in Washington, said: “They thought the rest of the country would say, ‘Wow, he’s governor of California.’ It was an overestimation.”

As they review other handicaps the campaign has faced, analysts and insiders focus on the impact of Wilson’s throat surgery and his broken pledge not to seek the White House.

The surgery in April was originally predicted to sideline the governor for a week; it ended up causing him a two-month absence from the campaign trail.

The timing was particularly bad because when Wilson announced on March 23 his interest in running, he enjoyed a momentum generated by national speculation that he could emerge as the chief rival to Dole.

By the time Wilson returned to the campaign trail in mid-June, he was already on the defensive, trying to dispel rumors that he was not a serious candidate. The governor was forced to hold a symbolic press conference, ceremoniously unveiling his first presidential campaign banner and insisting that he was not going to drop out.

One Wilson official said the governor’s absence from the presidential race, which was extended by several weeks during the summertime budget negotiations in Sacramento, prevented him from making crucial introductions to Republican contributors around the country.

Compounding these problems was the angry reaction among many California Republicans to Wilson’s decision to seek the presidency after he had promised during his gubernatorial candidate that he would serve a full four-year term. These GOP loyalists expressed concern that not only would a presidential bid distract Wilson from his California duties but, if successful, it would make Democratic Lt. Gov. Gray Davis the state’s chief executive.

The broken pledge has been blamed for much of the sharp dip in Wilson’s California opinion poll ratings, which in turn has damaged one of his candidacy’s underpinnings--his presumed political supremacy in the nation’s most populous state.

The campaign began its rebuilding process late last week with two days of politicking by Wilson in New Hampshire and a private fund-raiser in New York. And as they looked ahead, Wilson’s supporters took comfort in his last election night victory party, which many thought would never happen.

“I endorsed Pete Wilson because he is the best candidate for the job,” Weld said Friday. “That hasn’t changed. Pete Wilson has been habitually underestimated throughout his career and has proven the pundits wrong time and time again.”