Tremors in Japan’s Political Structure : Scandal-ridden ruling party may be on way out

The era of virtually unrestrained one-party rule in Japan could be coming to an end. The conservative Liberal Democrats, after 38 years in power and stumbling under an increasing weight of scandal, may be close to losing their majority following Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa’s loss of a no-confidence vote.

That humiliating setback, made possible when 20% of LDP members refused to support the government, has led to the dissolution of the lower house of Parliament and new elections on July 18. The first of what could be a number of reformist parties to emerge from among the long-fractionated LDP has already been announced. No single party, least of all the perpetually ineffective Socialists, is in a position to challenge the residue of the rich and established LDP. But a centrist coalition, built around LDP breakaways, could emerge.

Public disgust with Japan’s politics, and especially with a series of sex and corruption scandals involving some of the LDP’s top leaders, is running high. Miyazawa’s own political godfather, Shin Kanemaru, has been revealed to possess a $60-million private fortune based on favors and kickbacks. Others in the ruling party have also done well. In a recent survey, LDP members acknowledged having average assets of about $1.2 million, three times those of out-of-office opposition politicians. Miyazawa, though promising to clean up political corruption, has effectively done nothing.

The internal revolt against Miyazawa has been led largely by younger LDP members whose outlook and styles seem to differ markedly from their elders. For one thing, many believe the time has come for Japan to become more active in world affairs. They also tend to favor political reforms that would make elected officials more directly accountable to voters. Economic changes could be very much a part of these reforms, especially if they involve reducing the disproportionate influence on economic life so long enjoyed by small farmers, while paying more attention to the interests of urban consumers.

The LDP, to be sure, has not yet lost its mandate to govern, and it’s conceivable that Miyazawa might be able to lead the remnants of his party to a surprise victory next month. Japan’s voters, however much they may be fed up with the malodorous antics of the party they have for so long supported, could still prove reluctant to try something new. Meanwhile, it looks as if crucial and expectably acrimonious U.S.-Japan trade talks will for now have to be put on hold. American officials privately hope that the anti-corruption momentum in Japan will work to break down some of the barriers erected by the ruling party to U.S. markets in that country. That would do a lot to sweeten a relationship that has grown disturbingly sour.