THE TIMES POLL : Economy Still Troubles Many Valley Residents

The lingering national recession, job cutbacks and the downturn in aerospace and defense businesses continue to hammer San Fernando Valley residents, with 42% reporting that someone in their household was fired, laid off or lost income within the past year, a new Times Poll has found.

Reflecting the substantial layoffs by such companies as Rocketdyne, Lockheed and Hughes, 56% of those in households where income was derived from aerospace industries said they had suffered economic losses.

With so many local pocketbooks feeling thinner, it’s not surprising that 68% of Valley residents think the economy in their community is still stuck in a moderate or serious recession.

Carlos Santizo of Sylmar is among those who told the Times Poll that they are struggling financially.

Santizo, 42, had worked as an insurance agent for 15 years before his commissions fell so dramatically that he could not even afford to keep his licenses in force. After nearly two years of scratching around for a full-time job, he took a part-time position with an inventorying company, but he was only given eight hours of work last week, nowhere near enough to support his wife and four children.

Ever since he was forced out of selling insurance, “everything has been upside down,� Santizo said in an interview subsequent to the poll. He despairs at the notion of ever saving the $2,000 it would cost to return to the business. That “is nothing when you have the money, but when you have a situation where you go all the way down like I have, it’s a lot.�

The random telephone poll of 966 adults in the San Fernando, Burbank and the Valley portion of Los Angeles was conducted during the weekend of April 24 and 25 and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. The survey asked respondents how well things were going in their community, and then gave them an opportunity to identify the top two problems.

Fifty-four percent thought things were going well in their community, but a sizable minority, 42%, thought things were going badly. Crime was cited by 68% of the respondents, and the economy and unemployment, cited by 22%, ranked second. No other issue was even mentioned by as many as 10% of the respondents.

Although most Valley residents still say their personal finances remain secure, they’re clearly worried about the overall health of the local economy.

The poll reinforces the gloominess expressed by Valley business leaders, who traveled to Washington in April to lobby the Clinton Administration to pump up the local economy. The Valley Industry and Commerce Assn. leaders blamed over-regulation, post-Cold War defense cuts, the social service costs of immigration, rising crime and a failure of political leadership for the loss of between 50,000 and 100,000 jobs in the Valley in the past decade.

Adding to the negative economic climate was the announcement last week that the growth in the nation’s economy had slowed to 1.8% in the first quarter of 1993, down from 4.7% for the last quarter of 1992. Other confirmations that the nation’s recovery from recession is weak include downbeat gauges of consumer confidence and corporate purchasing plans.

When asked what caused them to lose income in the past year, 42% cited the recession and 37% said staff cuts. Notably, only 2% of those who lost income in the past year attributed the loss to an out-of-state move by their employer. “The failure of businesses within the region seems a bigger source of financial trauma than moves,� said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll.

Still, there is a brighter side to the local economic situation: Nearly 70% of the Valley residents polled say their personal finances are at least fairly secure. That number is unchanged since October and is higher than was measured in statewide and national surveys in the past few months.

Moreover, the percentage of residents of the Valley and the city of Burbank who say the local economy is in a serious recession is only about a third, substantially less than the 60% statewide who said in March that the state is so beleaguered.

Although only one-quarter of Valley residents think the recession will be over in a year, the number who think that the recession will still be moderate or serious at that point is only 44%, 24 points lower than the proportion who think it is in a down cycle now.

“Business was down and now it’s picking up,� said Mary Joyce Vera, a 65-year-old Arleta resident who sells raw materials to clothing manufacturers. Just in the past three months, she said, “people are really getting back into manufacturing� and her commissions, which she relies on to provide her spending money over and above her husband’s retirement income, are beginning to rebound.

Still, it’s not easy. “You have to be out there really fighting for what you get . . . because everybody’s out there trying to get business,� said Vera in a follow-up interview to the poll. “It just means you don’t give up. You just keep rapping on everybody’s door.�

Even many of those who say they have lost income in the past year say they are weathering the financial storm fairly well. Fifty-nine percent of that group say their personal finances are fairly secure.

Among those who fall into that group is Tim Harper, 35, and his wife of North Hollywood. Harper’s career in medical equipment sales has taken off in recent years, and his earnings have soared to more than $100,000. His wife’s income from her job in commercial real estate, however, plunged from $125,000 to $30,000 in the past few years, offsetting his gains.

Fortunately, Harper said in an interview after he participated in the Times Poll, his sales territory includes most of the western United States, including states such as Colorado and Texas, where the economy is recovering much more quickly than in Southern California.

But Harper said he is “living on damn airplanes� to get to those far-flung business opportunities. “My home life is stressed out. I’m just not here as much as I was three years ago,� he said.

His company now has only two salespeople regionally, compared to seven a few years back. The reason is that hospitals aren’t able to replace the big-ticket life support systems that Harper sells. For example, he said, Kaiser-Permanente used to spend $400,000 a year on that type of equipment, and Harper’s firm would usually get half of that business. This year, the HMO will spend less than $50,000.

Robert Stagner, 27, was among the 6% of those polled who said they were looking for work. Stagner was laid off April 12 from his $35,000-a-year job at Rocketdyne in Canoga Park as a test engineer for the space station program. Soon after, he moved back in with his parents in Moorpark.

Still, he’s upbeat about his chances. “I’m a pretty positive person, so I hope things will get better, and I don’t see this recession staying with us too long,� he said. “I can’t see that the space station program is going to get cut any more. It’s one of the few remaining large space projects left, and I think they would be foolish to reduce spending on it too much.�

If he’s able to get back on, however, it won’t be until October and the start of a new fiscal year at the earliest.

Recession worries wrack even those who aren’t concerned about their own jobs.

Ellen McDermott, a 46-year-old poll respondent from Sherman Oaks who is a programmer for the city of Los Angeles, has 30 years of seniority and believes that she is insulated from the city’s budget woes. But she is among the one-fifth of those polled who believe that the recession will still be serious a year from now.

“I think it has the potential of getting as serious as the Depression,� she said. “I think we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg, and it’s scary. Overall, the economy is supposedly making a slight upturn, but the jobs are not coming back.�

Assessing the Recession

Effects of the state’s economic downturn continue to linger across the San Fernando Valley. However, some residents feel the pinch more than others.

Concerned . . .

Do you think your community is in an economic recession, or not? No recession: 16% Mild recession: 12% Moderate recession: 34% Serious recession: 34% Don’t know: 4% *

but personally secure

How would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days? Very secure: 17% Fairly secure: 52% Fairly shaky: 19% Very shaky: 10% Don’t know: 10% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

*

‘We’re not keeping up’

Four residents talk about their economic hopes and fears.

Beth Heulitt, 32, Studio City. Bartender.

“My income from tips is down 20% and it’s affected my own well-being. I really hate having to use coupons but now it’s something I absolutely have to do. A year ago, I walked into a Honda dealership and said, ‘Give me the cheapest car on the lot.’ I couldn’t but what I wanted.�

Ben Emerson, 22, Canoga Park. Jobless scenery painter.

“From my point of view, everything seems to be getting a lot more expensive and we’re not keeping up. I think there’s 20 rich people for every 5,000 poor people. I think the local economy is horrendous. I don’t have a bad taste about L.A. When it’s good, it’s really good. But when it’s bad, it’s really bad.�

Carlos Santizo, 42, Sylmar. Ex-insurance agent.

“I looked in the newspaper for a job, but it’s very hard to find something. I took a part-time job with an inventory audit company. The problem is, it’s not enough money. When I started, I worked 40 to 50 hours a week. Last month, I worked 15 hours a week. For the last two weeks, it’s been just eight hours a week.�

Mary J. Vera, 65, Arleta. Fabric goods saleswoman.

“I think we’re going in the right direction, economically. I think it’s going to take quite awhile for the right things to get going, and the people sitting back and crying aren’t doing anything about it. My income is down but I’m enthused that business is doing much better. You have to be out there really fighting for what you get.�

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll interviewed 966 San Fernando Valley adults from the cities of Los Angeles, Burbank and San Fernando, by telephone, April 24 and 25. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the area. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Income Setback

42% of Valley residents polled had encountered an economic hardship in the last 12 months. The most common problem: loss of a job.

Have any of the following things happened to you, or to any member of your household, in the last 12 months? Fired from job: 23% Cutback: 9% Lower pay: 6% Temporarily laid off: 4% Lost part-time work: 2% Other: 5% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll