ELECTIONS : Increase in Turnout Predicted

Motivated by a bad economy and a three-man race for the White House, more Ventura County voters are expected to go to the polls Tuesday than in the presidential election four years ago, elections officials said Friday.

If the projections prove true, the larger turnout would buck a nearly 30-year trend of declining voter participation in general elections. The percentage of voters has declined in every presidential election since 1964, when 88.1% turned out for the contest between Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson and Republican Barry Goldwater.

But Ventura County Clerk Richard Dean predicted 77% of registered voters would punch ballots in the Nov. 3 election, compared to 75.6% in 1988.

“We don’t have any hard evidence, but there is just a feeling that there is more interest in this election,� Dean said during a press conference at the County Government Center.

Electoral interest is high this year for a number of reasons, including an intense interest in turning around a bad economy, changing representatives in recently redrawn political districts and the emergence of Ross Perot, Dean said.

Ventura County Elections Division chief Bruce Bradley also noted that this is the first election in which all 10 incorporated cities in the county have ballot choices, from a hotly contested advisory measure on how to solve long-term water needs in Ventura to city council races in the other cities.

The county’s predicted turnout mirrors the projected statewide trends released Friday by Secretary of State March Fong Eu, Ventura County officials said. Eu is predicting 74.9% of California’s voters will show up at the polls, more than 2% higher than four years ago.

Those figures, if accurate, would stem a similar 28-year slide in statewide voter participation.

About 276,600 Ventura County residents are expected to participate in the election, an estimated 17.6% by absentee ballot, Dean said. The percentage of county voters is predicted to be 2.1% higher than the statewide turnout, he said. Ventura County turnout has exceeded the state’s in the past six presidential elections.

Supporters of Perot were quick to pin the predicted higher turnout on the billionaire Texan’s entry into the presidential race.

“It’s not often you have a viable third-party candidate,� said Gary Meyer, a volunteer for Perot’s campaign in Ventura County. “It’s the first time people have a serious choice other than just voting down the party line.�

But Nels Henderson, chairman of the county’s Democratic Party, gave another reason for the voter projections. Henderson said more Democrats who haven’t voted in past elections will come to the polls because of the recession. And higher turnout traditionally has helped Democratic candidates, he noted.

“People are apt to be more involved in the process because the bad economy is hitting their pocket,� he said.

Richard Ferrier, chairman of the county’s Republican Central Committee, disputed Henderson’s contention that a higher turnout will help Democrats.

“That was conventional wisdom until the ‘80s, when it turned out not to be true,� Ferrier said. “Since then, voters who don’t usually go to the polls tend to split their votes when they do.�

Despite the gains expected next week, Dean was cautious about calling it the beginning of a long-term trend.

“What draws them is the presidential election,� Dean said. “They’ll be gone by the next election.�

Officials said Tuesday’s election will cost the county $748,000, or about $2.08 per voter. The largest chunk, $315,000, is spent to print ballots and voter information pamphlets. The rest is spent on polling place supplies, salaries and postage, officials said.

Voter Turnout

Ventura County California 1964 88.1% 88.4% 1968 88.6% 85.7% 1972 83.1% 82.1% 1976 82.9% 81.5% 1980 82.3% 77.2% 1984 77.5% 74.9% 1988 75.6% 72.8% 1992* 77.0% 74.9%

* Projected turnout by state and local elections officials.

Source: Ventura County Registrar of Voters