Area Delegates See Economy as Decisive Among Voters : Politics: Almost all Democratic respondents going to the convention say things in the country 'have gotten seriously off on the wrong track.' Yet some think Bush will be reelected.

By ALAN C. MILLER

July 13, 1992 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

WASHINGTON — San Fernando Valley-area and Ventura County delegates and alternates to the Democratic National Convention overwhelmingly believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction and that the economy will be the overriding issue in the fall presidential campaign.

A majority of the 45-member delegation feels that presumptive Democratic nominee Bill Clinton can attract enough votes nationally to win the election but little more than one-third believe that Clinton will carry their own congressional districts. Additionally, only about half the delegates say that Clinton is the strongest possible Democratic candidate.

These were among the findings of a survey done by The Times of delegates from the Valley area and Ventura County who are attending the Democratic Convention, which begins in New York City today. The survey was conducted by telephone between June 25 and July 6.

Thirty-nine of the 45 delegates and alternates participated in the interviews; the other six declined to do so. Of the group, 22 were women and 17 men. Twenty were Clinton delegates and alternates, 15 were pledged to former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. and four were “super delegates” from the Valley who are not pledged to any candidate.

“I’m an optimist; I believe Clinton can win,” said Judith Hirshberg, vice president of the National Women’s Political Caucus and a Clinton delegate from Encino. “It’s imperative that this country get new leadership.”

The delegates and alternates are an array of elected officials, campaign volunteers and party and labor activists. Their ranks include teachers, attorneys, union leaders, retirees and aides to city, county and state legislators.

The survey found that the conventioneers tend to be liberal, well-educated, affluent and professional. About half qualify as baby boomers between the ages of 31 and 45, and three out of five will be attending their first national convention.

All but two consider themselves supporters of abortion rights. Nearly two-thirds opposed the Persian Gulf War. Half think that taxes will have to be raised and spending reduced to balance the federal budget; just over a quarter think the red ink can be eliminated solely by cutting spending.

All 39 have some college education; 22 attended graduate school. A third reported that they make more than $100,000 a year; three-quarters earn more than $50,000. Only two delegates make less than $20,000. Delegates generally must pay their own way to the convention, a costly undertaking.

The delegates’ views reflect the uncertainties of a tempestuous election year. Nearly four in 10 think that undeclared candidate Ross Perot could be elected President as an independent in November, even though more than three-quarters have an unfavorable impression of the Texas billionaire.

Only five had a favorable impression of Perot. Four said they didn’t know what to make of him.

President Bush fared even worse. Nearly nine out of 10 of the Valley and Ventura County Democratic delegates and alternates said they had a “very unfavorable” impression of the Republican incumbent; the remainder said their view was “somewhat unfavorable.”

All but one of the delegates and alternates said things in the country today “have gotten seriously off on the wrong track.”

As a further reflection of that concern, three-quarters of those interviewed said they expect the economy to be among the most decisive issues in the fall campaign. Although respondents were allowed to cite two issues, nothing else was close.

In addition to the economy, a quarter of the respondents said the Democrats should seek to make education one of the most important issues this November.

“People being unsure of their economic future is a very big part of the country being off-track,” said Carol Blad of Van Nuys, an investigator in the Los Angeles city attorney’s office and a Clinton delegate.

“Also, there’s not a feeling that we can pull together and do this,” Blad said. “There’s a lot of talent in our country and I am confident that we can get back our economic future and a feeling of pulling together but we need a leader that can do that for us. It won’t be easy.”

The delegates’ view of Clinton, while generally favorable, reflects some of the misgivings that have dogged the candidate through a grueling primary campaign. This is particularly so among supporters of Brown, who has been harshly critical of Clinton and has yet to endorse him.

Nearly three-quarters said they have a favorable impression of Clinton (more than half said very favorable). The delegates who had negative views were all pledged to Brown--including eight who said their impression of Clinton was very unfavorable.

Nearly four-fifths of the conventioneers said they will strongly support Clinton. Nineteen said Clinton would be the strongest candidate the Democrats could nominate.

Eight of the Brown delegates said the three-time presidential contender would be the best nominee. And seven respondents named New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo--who considered running but decided not to do so--as the ideal candidate.

Ronald Gillis of Newhall, a business representative for the machinist union and a Clinton delegate, said he was one of those on the Cuomo bandwagon because of the governor’s oratorical skills and because “he has his finger on the problems that we have with poverty and homelessness and what needs to be done in the country.”

But Gillis said last week: “Clinton has won me over completely.”

The delegates generally said they believe that Clinton was damaged by his much-publicized handling of questions concerning marital infidelity, his draft record and marijuana use earlier in the primary campaign. But, in general, they tend to see the lasting impact as minor.

Nearly a third said Clinton had suffered major or minor damage on all three fronts. Another third said he was hurt by two of the three flaps. Only four said he suffered no damage from any of the controversies.

Twenty-three respondents said Clinton’s handling of the marijuana issue resulted in minor damage; four said it caused major damage. Another 11 said it had left no damage.

A total of 24 respondents said Clinton’s handling of questions regarding an alleged affair with a former nightclub singer inflicted minor or major damage. And 23 said that his handling of issues surrounding his alleged efforts to avoid the Vietnam draft inflicted minor or major damage. In both cases, most delegates said that the harm was minor.

Blad, the Los Angeles investigator, said the media had blown the so-called “character” issues out of proportion but she acknowledged that Clinton “could have handled them better” by being more forthright. She said he had bounced back recently in the polls because “he does not talk around an issue but goes directly to what the question is.”

Despite these earlier setbacks, two-thirds of the respondents said they believe the Democrats will regain the White House in November. About a fifth think Bush will be reelected; the remainder said they were uncertain about the outcome.

Gillis, the union rep, said of Clinton: “The more people he sees and who see him, the more votes he’ll get. I think he’ll consistently rise in the polls, based mainly on his economic policies. They’re practical, they’re well thought-out.”

If Clinton fails to win, seven delegates said they would like to see him as the party’s nominee again in 1996. Under those circumstances, 10 Brown delegates said they hope to see their candidate win the party’s nomination in four years.

Brown, whose delegate count is second only to Clinton’s, has not made his plans for the convention clear. He is the only one of the major Democratic candidates for the nomination with no prescribed role.

Clinton said after meeting with Brown last week that his last opponent intended to have his name placed in nomination, assuring himself a spot in the convention program.

The insurgent candidate had been frustrated in his efforts to push the platform to the left. Most recently, he predicted, rather enigmatically, “a creative convention experience.”

Brown has sympathy among the Valley and Ventura representatives extending beyond his own delegates. Two-thirds of the respondents said he should be allowed to give a prime-time speech. Another third said he should not be permitted to do so.

And Brown delegates expressed considerable loyalty. Asked whether they would join the insurgent candidate if he decides to walk out of the convention for any reason, 11 said they would do so. The other four said they were uncertain what they would do.

“It would depend on the issue,” said Brown delegate Barry Hammitt of Ventura, executive director of Service Employees International Union Local 998. “I don’t think I’m beholden to have blind allegiance to Jerry Brown or anyone else. If they are acting childishly or in a manner that I don’t think is in the best interests of my principles or my party, I am not going to go along with that.”

But Hammitt added that he expects there is going to be “an accommodation struck between Clinton and Brown before we get there. Brown is first and foremost a Democrat.”

Also contributing to this story was Susan Pinkus of the Los Angeles Times Poll.