NEWS ANALYSIS : Clinton’s Strategy May Not Work in California : Primaries: He faces a key battle precisely when Brown may be enjoying a political resurrection.
PHILADELPHIA — As he parses the results of his commanding victory in Pennsylvania’s presidential primary, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton can find more reasons for joy than for sadness.
He set out to run the equivalent of a general election campaign here, ignoring his Democratic rival--former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr.--while targeting President Bush with his attacks. And political analysts suggest that with his Tuesday triumph, Clinton successfully began the slow and lengthy process of wooing back Democrats who until now had resisted his advances.
But following that prescription through to the California primary on June 2, when Clinton hopes to clinch the nomination, may not be such an easy trick.
The Arkansas governor now faces the prospect of trying to take the high road while battling it out in a state that is almost certainly essential to his chances of gaining the presidency in November.
And he has to engage in that battle at the precise time that Brown, a candidate of many political lives, may be enjoying a political resurrection in his home state.
“Bill Clinton may be a lot of things, but he is not a lucky politician,†said Michael L. Young, a political science professor at Penn State-Harrisburg. “Jerry Brown is the last opponent you’d like to have going into California.â€
Still, having Brown as his sole active opponent clearly proved to Clinton’s advantage in April’s two key contests--the April 7 New York primary and the Pennsylvania vote. As Clinton vanquished him in both states, much of his party’s leadership has come to see him, grudgingly or not, as the presumptive nominee.
Clinton’s Pennsylvania win--final results showed him with 57% of the vote to 26% for Brown--was composed of several threads welcomed by his campaign. Pre-primary polls, and surveys of voters exiting the polls on Tuesday, showed that Clinton’s favorability ratings were up compared to previous weeks, and fewer voters than in past primaries said they mistrusted him.
He won virtually every voter category among state Democrats except for those who emphasized their commitment to environmentalism, and made inroads among groups that had previously eluded him, like Catholic Democrats.
“He’s broadened his base and deepened it among the people he needs,†said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville State University in Lancaster.
Clinton was not the only one ignoring Brown in Pennsylvania. Many of the state’s media outlets gave him and his message short shrift. But Brown will not be so anonymous in California. He will garner attention as the front-runner, given his lead of 51% to 37% over Clinton among registered Democrats in a Los Angeles Times Poll conducted last weekend.
Thus, Clinton is faced with a roll of the dice as he turns his attention to California--he can continue to ignore Brown and risk an embarrassing showing. Or he can try to cut down Brown and lose the opportunity to forge a positive impression among California voters.
Analysts interviewed Wednesday recommended the first alternative. And that is the course favored by Clinton’s campaign.
Among the most important groups to be targeted by Clinton in California will be the state’s young suburban voters, a bloc increasingly important in elections and one that has not embraced Clinton this political season. Analysts agree that it is crucial for Clinton to attempt to woo these voters before the general election campaign begins in earnest.
“Once the assault starts from the Republicans, it’s very difficult to disabuse the voters of California from a negative image,†said Anthony Podesta, who ran the California campaign of 1988 Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis.
Clinton has begun making adjustments to his Pennsylvania theme with a view toward future primaries and the general election. In the last few days, he has been mimicking Brown’s main theme--â€Take America Backâ€--much as he co-opted parts of the message of prior Democratic challengers.
“I assume it’s no accident that Clinton is using that language,†said Democratic strategist Wendy Sherman.
Analysts also warned that despite his strong performance in Pennsylvania, Clinton cannot assume he has put behind him the questions about his character that so tarnished his image in recent months.
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