Japan Trade Surplus Hit Record $103 Billion in ’91 : * Economics: With oil prices expected to remain weak and a slow recovery at home, the figure is likely to grow in ‘92, experts say.
TOKYO — A slump in oil prices and sluggish imports boosted Japan’s trade surplus by $40 billion to a record level last year, the government said Friday, and economists said the gap is likely to widen in 1992.
The Ministry of Finance said Japan’s unadjusted trade surplus rose to $103.29 billion from $63.53 billion in 1990.
The current account--the broadest measure of trade in goods and services--more than doubled in 1991 to $72.60 billion from $35.76 billion.
“With expectations of oil prices staying weak and a slow recovery in the Japanese economy, the surplus is likely to widen this year,†said Kusuo Aoki, deputy manager at the Yamaichi Research Institute of Securities and Economics.
“As long as the government does not stimulate the economy, this trend of a growing surplus will not stop,†he said.
The slowdown in the Japanese economy has dampened consumers’ appetite for luxury imported goods such as European cars and paintings, and there are no signs demand will pick up.
Officials were putting their best face on the situation.
One ministry official said a rapid expansion in the surplus was unlikely in the long run but admitted that lower import prices may widen the current account surplus in the near term.
Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa told Parliament earlier this week that the growth of the current account surplus in fiscal 1991-92, which ends in March, was mainly because of one-time factors such as falling imports of paintings and cars and lower oil prices.
But few economists agreed with Miyazawa, saying his comments were politically motivated ahead of his trip to the United States, which started Friday.
The ministry also said the trade deficit in the first 20 days of January narrowed to $15.97 million from a $993.88-million deficit in the same period a year earlier.
Japan always posts a deficit in this period because of seasonal factors. Economists said it does not indicate any change in the growing surplus.
The surge in the current account surplus for all of 1991 was due to a sharp decline in gold imports and lower import prices, including lower oil prices, the ministry said.
The yen’s strength against the dollar increased the value of Japan’s exports while reducing the value of imports, the official said. The average dollar rate in 1991 was 134.68 yen, down from 144.48 in the previous year.
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