JAPAN WATCH : Who’s Next?

Even before Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu formally announced that he would not seek a second term, the political machinations were under way in earnest. This is not surprising: At stake is the top political job in the world’s newest economic superpower.

Fortunately, though different factions of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party are jockeying to name Kaifu’s successor, party leaders are said to be insisting that candidates be well versed in foreign affairs. Surely decisive leadership in foreign policy is desperately needed to help Tokyo find its place in the new world order. Kaifu’s indecisiveness during the Gulf War hurt Japan’s image as an economic power willing to do its share.

But even if a knowledgeable foreign-policy hand is picked, there is the problem of LDP politics taking precedence over policy. Kaifu was never free to exercise much initiative. Inexperienced in foreign and economic affairs, he was plucked from obscurity two years ago for his Mr. Clean image as the LDP struggled to free itself of a stock bribery scandal. Early on, Kaifu promised political reforms. Ironically, the LDP abruptly dumped him after he showed independence by threatening to dissolve the Diet when his reform package was defeated Sept. 30.

Entrenched party elders leading the parade to succeed Kaifu include Kiichi Miyazawa, 72, Michio Watanabe, 68, and Hiroshi Mitsuzuka, 64. The winner is not likely to break new ground in policy-making, but he might be able to widen Tokyo’s global political role and to earn his nation new respect.