Hopeful Signs Emerging in Africa : Reforms are slow but steady on oft-ignored continent

Ethiopia’s President Mengistu Haile Mariam, who resigned last week in the face of ouster by rebels, is the latest of a half-dozen autocratic African rulers to lose power within the last year, primarily through uprisings. It is as if the dramatic reform taking place in Eastern Europe has had some effect, however measured, in Africa.

The ending of Cold War rivalries certainly facilitated the end of tyrannical regimes on the Horn of Africa. Mengistu of Ethiopia depended for years on Soviet military aid and technical assistance to arm the largest and most sophisticated army in black Africa.

His neighbor and rival, Mohamed Siad Barre of Somalia, similarly exploited a strategic geographic location to court assistance from the United States. These nations successfully took advantage of the superpower rivalry, but the aid dried up when the international climate changed dramatically. Without substantial foreign aid to prop up their armies, neither the tyrannical Mengistu nor the ruthless Siad Barre was able to stay in power.

PARALLELS: There are parallels as well between the bloody changes that took place in Somalia and Liberia. In those very different countries, very similar leaders ruled in a ruthless and excessively militaristic fashion. Somalia’s Siad Barre, who was in power for 21 years, and Liberia’s Samuel Doe, who was in charge for a decade, also exacerbated bitter internal ethnic rivalries. Doe did not escape the rage of his rivals. He was murdered last year in that West African nation.

Benin, which is also in West Africa, is perhaps the most successful example of change. When the aging dictator, Mathieu Kerekou, was confronted with internal pressures, he encouraged democracy. Kerekou was in no rush to give up his absolute power; he had headed the West African nation since 1972, when it was still known as Dahomey. But instead of violently resisting change, he organized a presidential election. In March, Kerekou was defeated at the polls by his prime minister.

There were no such smooth transitions in two other French colonies that also experienced change in the top job. In Mali, Moussa Traore, another veteran dictator, refused to relinquish the power that had been his since 1968. He faced the challenge by tightening his grip, until his own generals masterminded his fall. In Chad, President Hissen Habre also made a career out of murder and massacre as civil war ravaged the impoverished nation located between sub-Saharan Africa and Northern Africa. Habre fled last year, forced out by rebel victories.

PRESSURES: Who will be next to fall? African leaders are increasingly facing pressures from angry citizens who are fed up with corruption, economic deprivation and political repression. They, too, are demanding change in South Africa, Zaire, the Ivory Coast and other nations.

In Zambia, President Kenneth Kaunda has responded reluctantly but wisely to demands for democracy. After nearly two decades of running a one-party state, Kaunda has agreed to hold multiparty elections. His enlightened response has probably spared Zambia from the bloodshed that has become increasingly common. His counterparts should pay close attention.

Kenya’s President Daniel Arap Moi has insisted on meeting challenge with repression. He has jailed opponents, denied basic human rights and refused to make good on promises to restore the secret ballot. His actions have cost Kenya significant U.S. aid.

Few despotic leaders--anywhere--willingly share power. Democracy is no panacea for persistent African problems like famine, drought, economic underdevelopment and AIDS. But with the Cold War over, democratic reforms may persuade the rest of the world not to turn its back on an oft-ignored continent.