World Population to Soar to 10 Billion, Agency Says

WASHINGTON â€”  World population will almost double, to 10 billion, by the year 2050, with almost all of the faster-than-expected growth taking place in poor, developing countries, the U.N. Population Fund said Monday in its annual report.

The soaring population growth is expected despite birthrate declines in all major regions of the world--and even though the percentage of married couples using contraceptives in developing countries has grown from less than 10% in the 1960s to 51%.

Unless that figure increases to 59%, the population growth will be even greater than the agency predicted Monday.

The agency, boycotted by both the Reagan and Bush administrations, called for a doubling of spending on family planning in the developing world every year until it reaches $9 billion at the end of the century.

Although the United States spends more on foreign population control programs than any other country, it has refused since 1985 to contribute to the U.N. Population Fund, contending that the agency has supported forced abortion programs in China. Although the agency has denied this, President Bush vetoed the 1989 foreign aid bill because it allocated money to the agency.

The agency’s statistics showed enormous differences in birthrates between industrialized countries and poor developing nations. The highest birthrate was in Rwanda, where women averaged eight children each. The lowest were in Hong Kong, Italy and West Germany (now part of unified Germany), where women averaged 1.4 children each.

Current population trends will add more pressure for people to emigrate to wealthier nations. To avert starvation, developing countries will have to import 112 million tons of cereals annually by the end of the century, compared to 69 million tons imported between 1983 and 1985, the agency said.

Almost all the countries of Europe, both Western and Eastern, have birthrates below 2.1 children per woman--the rate required to avoid population growth. The rate in the United States is 1.9, Canada 1.6, Netherlands 1.6, Switzerland 1.6., Denmark 1.5 and Austria 1.5. Only immigration keeps these nations’ populations from declining.

In contrast, the birthrate in Malawi and Yemen is 7.6 and in Uganda 7.3. The agency predicted that Nigeria, which now has a population of 109 million, will grow to 281 million in 35 years--a population only slightly smaller than that of the United States, which should have 300 million in 2025. Mexico will grow from 89 million to 150 million during the same period, the agency predicted.

On the other hand, China, the world’s most populous country, is growing much more slowly and, by the end of the century, should have a birthrate that permits it to keep its population at a steady level. Nevertheless, the agency reported, it is so large now that even its slow rate of growth means that the Chinese population will increase from 1.1 billion now to 1.5 billion in 2025.

Without family planning programs, world population would be 412 million more than it is now, Dr. Nafis Sadik of Pakistan, executive director of the Population Fund, said in the report. China alone claims 200 million “births averted� and India 106 million, she said.

Although more money is needed to fund family planning programs, Sadik said, the cost is small compared to the economic savings for the countries involved.

The agency predicted that the current world population of 5.4 billion will soar to 6.4 billion at the beginning of the 21st Century and then to 8.5 billion in the year 2025. It is expected to reach 11.6 billion in the year 2150. It then “may eventually level off.�

The Population Boom

Average expected annual growth rate, 1990--95:

NORTH AMERICA: +0.7%

LATIN AMERICA (Central America, South America and Caribbean islands): +1.9%

EUROPE AND SOVIET UNION: +0.2%

AFRICA: +3.0%

MIDDLE EAST: +2.8%

SOUTH ASIA (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan): +2.3%

SOUTHEAST ASIA: +1.9%

EAST ASIA (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Mongolia): +1.3%

OCEANIA (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific): +1.4%

Source: United Nations