Gulf Victory Seen as Economic Boon

America’s success in the Persian Gulf War could boost Ventura County’s economy by inspiring new confidence among consumers and by bringing some badly needed defense contracts to aerospace firms, county business leaders say.

A feeling has taken hold that prospects for jobs, retail sales and the defense and oil industries--among other areas of the county’s economy--have improved thanks to the overwhelming success of the United States and its allies, many business people agree.

“In this part of the country, at least, we’re having a consumer-driven recession,� said Marshall C. Milligan, president of the Bank of A. Levy. “It began and it will end based on the public’s perception of our future prospects.�

With the Middle East armistice, Milligan said, “people’s attitudes will improve, and that could help our economy a great deal.�

Like most county business leaders, however, Milligan tempered his optimism. “Unless government pays attention to solving such problems as our state and federal deficits, the public euphoria will be temporary,� he warned.

In Port Hueneme, where business people have complained that tightened security at that city’s Seabee base has prevented workers from patronizing stores and eating places, Debbie Head, owner of Giggles, a restaurant on North Ventura Road, was confident of at least a partial comeback.

“We’ll get some of our customers back as soon as the delays at the gates end,� she said. “But I think it will take time before things completely return to normal.�

She explained that she expects many Seabees who are now in the war zone to remain there for several more weeks dismantling barracks and other military facilities.

Dan Pasquini, president of Fortune Petroleum Corp., an Agoura Hills oil producer with wells in Fillmore and Piru, believes the end of the war should help his industry because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “may get its act together� and halt a recent steep decline in oil prices.

“In mid-October, we were getting $32.50 a barrel for Ventura County crude,� he said. “We’re down to $14 now. At that price, we’re barely breaking even.�

Pasquini hopes OPEC will cut production of member nations. This, he said, would reduce the supply of oil on the world market, thereby raising the price of crude produced in the county to $17 to $22. “That would encourage us to continue our expansion program,� he said.

Optimism has taken hold too among the county’s hundreds of unemployed defense workers, reported Larry Kennedy, manager of the Simi Valley office of the state Department of Employment Development.

“Job orders haven’t increased yet, but the people we talk to at the counters have taken the attitude that things will be better next week,� Kennedy said.

Kennedy shares the feeling that the job outlook in aerospace and other defense fields will improve, but said he believes the increase will come “in the long run� rather than immediately.

Similarly, Steve Rubenstein, president of the Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce, suggested that “defense spending is bound to increase now that our technology did so much to help win the war with so few American lives lost.�

Like Kennedy, Rubenstein hopes for better times at the Rocketdyne division of Rockwell International Corp., Abex Corp., Whittaker Corp. and other firms that have eliminated more than 2,000 jobs in the county because of defense cutbacks.

Both Kennedy and Rubenstein, however, held out little hope for a reprieve for the Northrop Corp. aerospace plant in Newbury Park. Northrop announced late last year that it is closing the plant and laying off 1,800 workers by the end of 1991.

Jim Word, manager of the J.C. Penney store in Ventura, said business remains soft, and “it’s really too early to tell� how the war’s end will affect county retailers.

“But I overhear people talking, and I can tell you they’re pleased and cheerful,� he said.

“That can’t hurt. If it’s true that people can talk themselves into a recession, then it stands to reason that they can talk themselves out of one too.�