REAL ESTATE

And Still Going Up: Right now the median price of a new home in Orange County is about $380,000, one of the highest in the nation. But that’s nothing. How about a median of $1 million ?

That’s a distinct possibility in the next 10 years, says a local home builder. What’s more, the once inexpensive market of Riverside and San Bernardino counties could hit a median price of $500,000 by the end of the decade.

The home builder is Dale Dowers, president of Costain Homes, a British builder with operations in Southern California. Dowers laid out what he called his “relatively conservative” projections, based on price trends over the last 20 years, at a recent builders’ meeting.

It’s clear that personal income won’t grow nearly that fast, so it’s quite likely that even fewer county residents will be able to afford a new home by the end of the decade, even if prices don’t rise as much as Dowers’ projections. Fewer than one in seven families can afford a house now.

On the other hand, builders are already building houses mostly for the wealthy in Orange County--with the exception of the few building slightly more affordable condominiums--so really not all that much will have changed. To many buyers, the difference between $380,000 and $1 million won’t mean that much anyway, since they can afford neither price.