Telecommunications Gear Is the Exception : High Tech Growth to Slow, Trade Group Says

WASHINGTON â€”  Between now and 1993 there is likely to be a slowdown in worldwide growth rates for computers and other information technology except telecommunications equipment, according to a U.S. trade association.

The Computer and Business Equipment Manufacturers Assn. said global revenues of the information technology industry in 1988 totaled $604.7 billion, up 11.2% from the previous year.

The figure includes computers and other electronic data processing equipment, $304 billion; office equipment, $62.1 billion; telecommunications equipment, $112.2 billion; as well as software and services, $126.4 billion.

In a global market analysis issued last week, CBEMA said information industry revenues grew at an average annual rate of 10.8% over the period 1980-88. But that growth rate, it said, is projected to decrease to 8.7% a year for the period from 1988 through 1993.

Looking ahead for the next four years, “there is a slowdown in all equipment markets except telecommunications,� said Helga Sayadian, director of industry marketing statistics for the Washington-based association.

Sayadian said this trend “reflects economic conditions worldwide and the slight recession that is forecast near the beginning of next year.�

For electronic data processing equipment, the worldwide annual growth rate averaged 12.3% in 1980-88 and is projected to drop to 8.9% in 1988-93.

Average annual growth for office equipment was 9.3% in 1980-88 and is forecast to decline to 7.7% in 1988-93, while yearly growth of software and services averaged 19% in 1980-88 and is projected to drop to 11.9% in 1988-93.

By contrast, CBEMA said, annual growth for telecommunications equipment is forecast to increase slightly to 5.3% in 1988-93 from 4.5% in 1980-88.

For 1988, consumption of information technology in North America totaled $299.4 billion; Europe, $212.4 billion; Asia, $76.7 billion; South America, $8.8 billion, and the rest of the world, $7.4 billion.

Projections for 1993 are North America, $448.6 billion; Europe, $303.3 billion; Asia, $141.1 billion; South America, $16.2 billion, and the rest of the world, $12.1 billion, for a global total of $921.1 billion.

In terms of market share, the share of global information technology accounted for by electronic data processing equipment was 50.3% in 1988 and is forecast to edge up slightly to 50.5% by 1993. Software and services is projected to rise to 24.1% in 1993 from 20.8% in 1988.

However, the global market share for telecommunications equipment is expected to drop to 15.7% in 1993 from 18.6% in 1988, while office equipment is projected to decline to 9.7% in 1993 from 10.3% in 1988.

The CBEMA study was prepared by the Center for Economic Analysis Inc., a Stamford, Conn.-based consulting firm, in cooperation with the association’s Industry Marketing Statistics Committee.

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