Weak Voter Preferences Raise Stakes in Debate : Tonight's Event May Be Campaign Turning Point as Polls Show Lack of Commitment to Candidates

By ROBERT SHOGAN

Sept. 25, 1988 12 AM PT

Times Political Writer

BLOOMFIELD, N.J. — To understand why the stakes are so high in tonight’s presidential campaign debate, it helps to talk to Ed Gregory, who brought his wife and three young children to a Bush campaign rally last week in this north Jersey town.

Gregory works 55 hours a week as a corporate planner to meet the payments on his home in nearby Cedar Grove. His wife, Jane, a registered nurse, puts in four days a week at a local hospital.

“I suppose the economy is in good shape,” he says. “But I feel squeezed.”

Voted for Reagan

Last week Gregory, who voted for President Reagan in 1980 and 1984, was inclined to cast his ballot for Republican George Bush in November, in part because he worries that Democrat Michael S. Dukakis is too liberal.

But Bush’s speech here at a flag factory, the latest in a series of attempts to make patriotism a major campaign theme, did not impress him. And Gregory, who says he has an open mind, will be watching Dukakis closely in tonight’s 90-minute debate.

“I hope he talks about the issues,” he said.

Gregory is only one of more than 100 million Americans who are expected to tune in to tonight’s confrontation in Winston-Salem, N.C. Because it comes at a time when the polls indicate that many voters, like Ed Gregory, are not yet firmly committed, the debate looms as a potential turning point in the still-unsettled contest for the White House.

And as Gregory’s interest indicates, Dukakis faces the most critical imperative because he is the lesser-known contender, the challenger to an incumbent Administration and right now the underdog.

“Dukakis has a heavier burden than Bush,” says Republican consultant John Deardourff, media adviser to President Gerald R. Ford in 1976. “The evidence is almost unassailable that he is behind. He has to make something happen.”

But if Republicans claim Dukakis is starting the debate with his back against the wall, his own advisers contend that he is really opening opportunity’s door. They regard the debate as the Massachusetts governor’s best chance yet to get himself and his ideas for running the country across to the voters, unhindered by opposition criticism and journalistic skepticism.

“We’re out of the 30-second sound-bite battle,” says Leslie Dach, communications director for the Dukakis campaign. “Instead we have an opportunity to speak for our share of 90 minutes about Mike Dukakis’ plans for taking charge of the economic future.”

To Bush strategists, by contrast, the debate is important but not critical. “Coming out of this debate, if Bush is no worse off than he is going into it, it is going to be mighty tough for Dukakis to put together the momentum to catch us,” says James Lake, communications consultant to the Bush campaign.

Lake argues that the expectations are higher for Dukakis because of his experience as host on the public television show “The Advocates.” But Democrats, scoffing at such talk, point out that Bush demonstrated during his drive for the nomination that he himself is no slouch as a debater.

Chance to Solidify Lead

Lake concedes that Bush needs to try to use the debate to solidify his lead. “People don’t know either of these guys well,” he acknowledges. “During the past two years there has been a great deal of characterization of Bush that has not been flattering. This is an opportunity for Bush to change that.”

Experience demonstrates that winners and losers in debates are often determined by unpremeditated gaffes by one candidate or the other. Each candidate has been preparing intensively for tonight’s encounter, hoping to minimize the chance of a blunder. At the same time, both camps have been receiving advice by the bushel on how to maximize their chances of emerging the winner.

Here, for both candidates, are some of those suggestions, based on interviews with neutral analysts and professionals on both sides:

FOR DUKAKIS --Humanize his candidacy. “He needs to lighten up,” says Republican pollster Linda DiVall. Republican Deardourff says: “He looks like a guy whose Jockey shorts are too tight.”

It’s generally agreed that humor would help. But the jokes ought to be on Dukakis himself, rather than at Bush’s expense, the analysts say. Although Bush is a tempting target, needling him might well seem mean-spirited. If Dukakis can josh himself, as he managed to do when he hosted “The Advocates,” he can disarm his critics and charm the undecided.

‘Not a Robot’

More fundamentally, Dukakis is advised to respond emotionally to issues. “He needs to show that he is not a robot,” says University of Texas debate specialist Kathleen H. Jamieson--and to define his own experience and record in terms voters can connect with their own lives.

--Stress substance. Some contend that Dukakis can make points by emphasizing his policy proposals in such areas as health and education and contrasting them with Bush’s harping on such symbolic concerns as the Pledge of Allegiance. “My friends, flag sales are doing well and America is doing well,” Bush declared in his speech here at the flag factory.

But Democratic pollster Mark Mellman warns that Dukakis “has to avoid getting bogged down in details.”

“He doesn’t need a 10-point program,” adds Ted Van Dyk, longtime adviser to Democratic presidential candidates. “But he needs to establish his knowledge of issues.”

--Highlight his executive experience. Dukakis has balanced his state’s budgets, signed bills into law and established public policy, all executive responsibilities that Bush has never had the opportunity to discharge. The governor made good use of that background in some of the debates during the campaign for the nomination, and he ought to be able to do so again.

Could Resolve Doubts

This offers him a way of putting down Bush without seeming to be negative. More important, it could help resolve the doubts of voters like Marie Prita, a flag factory worker here in Bloomfield, who said: “Bush has been with Reagan, but Dukakis doesn’t have much experience.”

Austin Ranney, a UC Berkeley political scientist and Democratic stalwart, says: “Dukakis is not lovable, but he has a clean record. He is straightforward and competent. That’s what he has to offer.”

FOR BUSH --Be his own man. Bush’s emergence as a political personality in his own right in his speech accepting the Republican nomination triggered his remarkable comeback from second place by double digits to leading the campaign. Now he needs to show that his performance in New Orleans was no fluke.

“He should continue to give the impression of someone who is in charge and who is comfortable with himself,” says pollster DiVall.

Can Differ With Reagan

One effective way to do that is to point to some campaign proposals, such as his tax-credit scheme to help finance day care and his environmental program, both of which go beyond or conflict with Reagan policies. Indeed, some analysts believe that Bush is in a better position to differ with Reagan than is Dukakis, who needs to avoid offending the Reagan Democrats he must win back.

--Avoid stylistic distractions. One reason for the wimpish image that Bush has worked so hard to shed, under the coaching of media adviser Roger Ailes, was Bush’s tendency to slip into awkward patterns of speech and body movement, which to many people suggested artificiality and weakness.

“He has to be sure that such aberrations don’t reappear,” says Jamieson. “He needs to pause before answering, stay away from euphemisms and use declarative sentences.”

Better to Contemplate

Bush has to worry that his tendency to gush or grope for words might cause people to wonder about his judgment, which many believe is already in question as a result of his choice of Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle as his running mate. “If he enthuses instead of contemplates when he answers a question, he could be in trouble,” Jamieson says.

Dukakis Weak Points

--Emphasize national security. Just as executive experience is Bush’s short suit, foreign policy and national defense are weak points for Dukakis, whose public service--except for his time as a GI in Korea--has been limited to the state of Massachusetts.

Bush can legitimately point out that in addition to his familiarity with international affairs as a much-traveled vice president, he had also served as U.N. ambassador, envoy to China and head of the CIA. Polls show that voters are concerned about Dukakis’ views in this area, an attitude magnified by the governor’s opposition to a number of weapons systems.

One caution: Bush needs to be careful not to give Dukakis an opening to challenge his judgment on the Iran-Contra affair.

Sound-Bite Battle

On the nightly television news, Dukakis frequently has lost the critical sound-bite battle because of the Bush campaign’s strategy of pounding away at Dukakis relentlessly, seeking to define the Democratic standard-bearer in unfavorable terms before he could define himself.

“Bush’s negative campaign has dimmed Dukakis’ message,” argues Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who advised the presidential campaign of Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr.

But if Bush has painted an unfairly negative picture of Dukakis, as Dukakis aides complain--”Bush has basically run a campaign not about himself but about Michael Dukakis,” Dach contends--some Democrats suggest that Dukakis gave his opponent the chance to do so.

They point to Dukakis’ reluctance to project his personality to the voters--”I don’t want to be a great communicator,” he declared repeatedly while seeking the Democratic nomination--and his resistance to spelling out specifics of his policy proposals. “This election isn’t about ideology, it’s about competence,” he contended in his convention acceptance speech.

‘Gave Bush His Chance’

“Then after the convention he sat back for about seven or eight weeks and gave Bush his chance,” contends Al From, executive director of the Democratic Leadership Council, a group of centrist elected officials.

By one contrariant view, Dukakis might actually take encouragement from the polls. Even though his campaign was badly outmaneuvered by the Bush operation for two months, and even though the incumbent vice president can boast of the prevailing peace and prosperity, the Democratic governor is still within single digits of the Republican vice president.

One reason may be the advantage of 10 percentage points or so that the Democratic Party enjoys over the Republicans in party loyalty.

Another possible explanation has to do with Bush’s limitations as a candidate. “There has to be some inherent weakness in George Bush’s basic appeal,” says Deardourff, “or he’d be so far in front he’d be out of sight.”

To most analysts, the latest pre-debate polls indicate that while Bush has an apparent advantage, the dominant reality of the election is the ambiguity of voters toward both candidates.

No Strong Allegiance

A Gallup Poll taken for Times Mirror between Sept. 9 and Sept. 14, which gave Bush a 50% to 44% lead, also showed that both candidates were liked and disliked by equally large groups of voters and that most supporters of both candidates did not characterize themselves as strong in their allegiance.

In the electoral college, where the election will actually be decided, the advantage the Republicans have built in the South and Rocky Mountain West over the last 20 years appears to be reasserting itself, after Dukakis’ show of strength in those regions in early summer.

Nevertheless, the overall contest for electoral votes appeared to be roughly as close as the popular vote competition. According to an analysis of state polls released 10 days ago by the Field Institute, Dukakis led in 14 states with a total of 132 electoral votes, while Bush was in front in 19 states with 156 electoral votes.

Both were far short of the 270 needed for an electoral majority.