HOME TECH ANALYSIS : BUILDING UP TO CONSUMER BACKLASH?

While those attending the recent Consumer Electronics Show in Chicago were singing the praises of all the new equipment on display, consumers may soon be singing “The Replacement Blues” when these products come to stores during the next few months.

One of the stars of the show was Super-VHS, a new format for VCRs that delivers a much sharper picture than currently available VCRs.

Fine, unless you just bought a top-end VCR--say, a digital VHS model with the works (HQ circuits, hi-fi and MTS stereo decoding). You’ll have to buy a new machine to enjoy Super-VHS.

And indications are that you’ll want to enjoy Super-VHS. The new issue of Video Review contains an exclusive test report on a JVC prototype was conducted for the magazine by the Advanced Product Evaluation Laboratory. A summary finds, among other things, that:

--”In terms of picture resolution, at least, Super VHS takes home video into a new realm. After this, watching conventional VHS will be like looking at a TV picture through a veil.”

--”Super VHS surpasses even the optical laser disc, considered by many to be the finest video playback source.”

--”Test data confirms that Super VHS is the most significant innovation in home video technology since the introduction of the VCR.” Among just the recognized possibilities:

So it looks like Super VHS is going to be a hit. But what if another, similarly revolutionary change comes about in VCRs in a year or two? Something like truly digital VCRs (which would not only deliver the enhanced special effects provided by current “digital” VCRs, but also a digitally generated picture that would out-sharp Super-VHS and ED-Beta) or recordable/interactive video disc. Or something completely unanticipated?

Will we see another development that the electronics industry would rather not think about--a consumer backlash? In a replay of that infamous “Network” scene, will people stick their heads out their windows and shout, “I’ve already bought enough electronic equipment and I’m not going to take any more”?

Not likely, says Bruce A. Huber, a marketing executive at Zenith, one of the companies that will be selling Super-VHS machines this fall. “I don’t think there’s any danger of a backlash,” he said. “Our experience in the color-TV area has shown that about 40% of the sets sold are additions, and about 40% are replacements. In fact, more homes now have two televisions than those with just one. We’re beginning to see the VCR market become that kind of mature market--where, just as with automobiles, too--people recognize that in a year or two something better is going to come along.”

Of course, Huber said, there may be no other market where things change so fast. However, there always seems to be enough “upscale” buyers to get a new product going. “These people aren’t very price-sensitive,” remarked Huber. “When they want to be the first on their block to have something, they don’t let cost stand in their way.”

Super-VHS machines, said Huber, will probably debut with retail prices in the $1,100-$1,200 area. If that seems high, it could have been worse. “When they were first sold in Japan, Super-VHS VCRs sold for the equivalent of about $2,000. And at first, it looked like initial U.S. prices would be around $1,500.”

At some point after their U.S. introduction, the prices of Super-VHS models are expected to fall. Huber said it was hard to speculate whether they’d fall as drastically as conventional VHS prices did, but surely “after a year or so, the average price should go under $1,000,” he said. Depending on how stiff the competition gets, they could dip much lower. Then the product should catch on with the mass market.

That’s the usual pattern with electronics equipment, and Huber doesn’t see any reason why it shouldn’t continue. “People are becoming aware of how fast things change in this industry, and while they’re learning to anticipate the changes--by getting stereo TVs even if they don’t have much stereo broadcasting in their area, for instance--they’re not holding back from buying.”

In fact, said Huber, Americans are so video-crazy now that many aren’t even content with replacing their VCR. “Twenty-five percent of the VCRs sold,” he said, “are additional.” With the two-VCR home becoming more commonplace, what’s to keep the electronics boom from continuing?