Without Hart, Democratic Race Becomes Wide Open

By JACK NELSON

May 8, 1987 12 AM PT

Times Washington Bureau Chief

WASHINGTON — Gary Hart’s plan to abandon his campaign makes the 1988 Democratic presidential race a wide-open affair that includes no obvious front-runners and probably means other contenders will join the fray.

The former Colorado senator’s scheduled withdrawal from the race today, in the wake of reports that he spent last weekend with a young model, “opens opportunities for everybody interested in the race,” said Charles T. Manatt, co-chairman of the Hart campaign.

“It goes back to wide open, but I don’t think it breaks more for one candidate than another,” said Manatt, a former Democratic Party chairman who indicated that he is undecided on backing another candidate.

Observers Favor Gephardt

However, several political observers in the capital said that of the seven other Democrats who have announced or indicated their plans to run, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri stands to gain the most in the short run because he already is establishing a national reputation on the trade issue and has been mounting a strong challenge in Iowa, where candidates will face their first test in a February caucus.

“Gephardt’s the immediate beneficiary,” said John White, a former Democratic Party chairman, “but that makes him the front-runner earlier than he had hoped. He had hoped to play off Hart. He may not be able to take the heat as the early front-runner. My guess is it’s absolutely anybody’s race now.”

White said he expects Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who already was contemplating making the race, to jump into the contest now that Hart is ending his campaign. “And he’s my friend, I’ll be supporting him,” White said.

Celeste Considers Entering

Ohio Gov. Richard F. Celeste also is considering making the race, several Democratic Party sources here said Thursday after learning of Hart’s plan to withdraw.

There also will be increasing pressure on Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, who has not ruled out entering the race later this year, to make an earlier announcement if he intends to run.

Nunn is being urged to make the race by former Virginia Gov. Charles Robb and other prominent Democrats.

“I doubt Hart’s withdrawal would convince Bill Bradley (the New Jersey senator) to change his mind and get in,” said Sen. John D. (Jay) Rockefeller IV (D-W.Va.), “but I wish it would. It’ll put pressure on Sam Nunn to run and that would be good.”

With Hart out of the race, Rockefeller said, “a large cloud is being cleared away to make for an open field and more excitement in the Democratic race. It will be much more unpredictable now.”

Cuomo Reaffirms Decision

In New York Thursday evening, Gov. Mario M. Cuomo reaffirmed his decision to stay out of the race. He said: “There’s no relationship between Gary Hart’s situation and mine. Nobody can pressure you into doing something you don’t want to do.”

The governor, who withdrew in February, said that even without Hart, “You’re still left with a whole array of very accomplished candidates.” He said that if the field appears to be “not particularly scintillating at the moment,” that is only because actual primary competition has not begun.

On the eve of Hart’s press conference in Denver to announce his withdrawal, there were indications some candidates already were benefiting from his decision.

‘People Are Coming Aboard’

Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois, who declared his candidacy recently, said: “We’ve been getting calls from people who are coming aboard with us from the Hart campaign, and I assume some other candidates are getting the same thing.”

Hart had been scheduled to address the annual Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner at a South Dakota fund-raising event Saturday night, but Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee, another announced candidate, has now been invited in his place.

Other candidates kept close watch on the Hart campaign this week as it became apparent that the former senator was coming close to pulling out. Former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt telephoned one of his campaign advisers, Bob Neumann of Rep. Morris Udall’s staff, and asked how the situation looked.

“I told him Hart was breathing, but he wasn’t alive,” said Neumann, who pointed out that even before the encounter with the model, Hart had been plagued both by allegations of “womanizing” and controversy over unpaid campaign debts from his 1984 race for the Democratic nomination. “He’s got no money and no credit, he’s a goner,” said Neumann. “It’s tragic.”

‘Rather Be Out Front’

Bill Carrick, Gephardt’s campaign manager, agreeing with White that Gephardt probably will now surge in the polls, said: “We would expect a breakthrough--and it would certainly give us a leg up in Iowa. And we’d rather be out front than a lonely dark horse.”

A Des Moines Register poll taken in Iowa Tuesday and published Thursday showed Hart had dropped nine percentage points since a similar poll April 20-29, but still held an overwhelming lead with 56% of voters favoring him in the Democratic field. He was followed by Gephardt with 9%, Massachussets Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, 4%; Babbitt and civil rights activist Jesse Jackson, each 3%; Simon and Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, 1% each, and Gore, less than 1%. Twenty-three percent were undecided.

The April 20-29 poll had shown that had Hart not been in the race, then the undecided vote would increase to 38%, with Jackson surging to 24%, followed by Gephardt with 17%. Babbitt would have 7%; Dukakis 6%; Simon 5%; Biden 2%, and Gore 1%.

Voters Offer Clean Slate

Those results, including the suggestion that Jackson might surge into even a temporary lead, reflect two bedrock facts about the Democratic field: except for Hart and Jackson, most voters have almost no clear ideas about who any of the would-be nominees are, and that now opens the possibility that almost anything could happen.

Jackson’s potential for a strong showing in a state with relatively few black voters may stem primarily from his name recognition, but it could also suggest that he has begun to make some headway preaching economic justice and inter-racial cooperation among farmers and other rural residents who have suffered hard times during the Reagan Administration.

In New Hampshire, where the nation’s first primary election traditionally decides early front-runners and weeds out the also-rans, a new Boston Herald poll showed the race wide open after the episode involving Hart and model Donna Rice.

Dukakis Leads Hart

The poll, taken Wednesday and published Thursday, showed Dukakis leading Hart, 27% to 17%, followed by Babbitt 2%, Biden 1%, Gephardt 1%, Jackson 1%, Simon 1%, “don’t know,” 47%, and the rest “no answer.”

In Los Angeles, Democratic strategist Mickey Kantor, who is uncommitted in the 1988 race, said: “Obviously a race that was wide open last Friday is in chaos now. In California, a state Gary did very well in in 1984, it’s anybody’s race now.”

Peter D. Kelley, California Democratic chairman, said Hart’s withdrawal “benefits the Democrats who are already organizing in California and that is Jackson, Gephardt and Biden.”

In the 1984 Democratic primary race, Hart won 205 delegates to eventual nominee Walter F. Mondale’s 72 and Jackson’s 29.

Times political reporter Keith Love in Los Angeles also contributed to this story.