Analyst Says Terrorist Attacks Will Spread by Century’s End

Terrorist attacks including airplane hijackings, bombings and assassinations will increase by the end of the century, but a terrorist nuclear attack is not likely, a Rand Corp. analyst said.

Increased resistance to terrorists, such as recent actions taken by the United States and Egypt to capture or kill hijackers, may prompt terrorist groups to change tactics or become more violent, said Brian M. Jenkins, chief analyst for terrorism studies at the Santa Monica think tank.

Despite fears by some that terrorists will eventually use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, Jenkins said in a report released Friday that he does not believe it likely.

Jenkins believes the possibility of terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons has been “greatly exaggerated.” In any event, he said, the explosion of a nuclear weapon, or killing of large numbers of people with chemical or biological weapons, would not serve the purposes of most terrorist groups.

He said terrorists want people watching their attacks so that they can achieve political goals. Large-scale killings would not advance a political agenda, he said.

Jenkins predicted increased bloodshed and casualties as the 21st Century approaches.

“If terrorism persists, and we expect it will, a new generation of terrorists will have taken the field,” he said. They will be even more callous, Jenkins said.