Movie projector: July 4 picnics could pinch ‘Ice Age,’ ‘Public Enemies’

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July 4 is typically one of the most lucrative long weekends of the year for the movie business, since it brings an extra day off at a time when theaters are full of big-budget summer event pictures. But with the holiday falling on a Saturday this year, many in Hollywood are worried that ticket sales could suffer if people are outdoors barbecuing on the busiest moviegoing day of the week.

To put it another way, studios are praying for thunderstorms this weekend across the nation.

Barring bad weather on Saturday, however, box-office watchers aren’t expecting a fireworks opening for Fox’s ‘Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs’ or Universal’s ‘Public Enemies,’ both of which start tomorrow in hopes of generating extra business before Saturday.

The third film in Fox’s series from its Blue Sky animation studio is looking at five-day ticket sales around $60 million, based on pre-release tracking. Although that’s decent given the movie’s approximately $90-million cost, it’s significantly less than the $67 million that the second ‘Ice Age’ film opened to on a three-day weekend in March of 2006. The slow Saturday will play a role in that, but ‘Dawn of the Dinosaurs’ will also benefit from higher ticket prices for the significant number of theaters where it will play in 3-D. It’s Fox’s first film to utilize the technology.

A softer start for ‘Ice Age’ will only be compounded by the fact that two weeks after it debuts, much of the family audience will defect to ‘Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.’

‘Dawn of the Dinosaurs’ has better prospects internationally, however, where it is opening simultaneously in 93 countries. The second ‘Ice Age’ movie earned more than twice as much from foreign markets as it did in the U.S. and Canada -- $457 million compared with $195 million.

It will almost certainly do better at the box office than Universal’s ‘Public Enemies.’ In a year when many R-rated dramas have performed poorly, the Michael Mann drama starring Johnny Depp is looking at a five-day gross around $35 million. Given a budget that one source close to the production said is a bit over $100 million, the movie will need strong word of mouth to turn into a success. Mann’s last film, 2006’s ‘Miami Vice,’ earned less than triple its opening gross by the end of its run, but 2004’s ‘Collateral’ generated better buzz and ultimately earned more than four times what it took in on its first weekend.

Initial reviews are largely positive. Times critic Kenneth Turan called it ‘an impressive film’ that ‘may not give you a ton to hang on to emotionally, but the beauty and skill of the filmmaking keep you tightly in its grasp.’

Despite its serious subject matter, ‘Public Enemies’ is tracking as well with audiences under 25 as over, a good sign for Universal. Men are indicating more interest in the film than women in polling.

The box-office winner this weekend will most likely be ‘Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.’ Movies with huge $100-million-plus openings typically drop dramatically on their second weekends. But with very positive audience reactions, Paramount’s big-budget event picture might end up dropping around 50%, which would put it just over $50 million.

‘Ice Age’ has a shot at topping ‘Revenge of the Fallen,’ but it will likely gross under $50 million for the three-day weekend and come up a bit short. ‘Public Enemies’ will gross closer to $25 million Friday through Sunday.

As of Monday, ‘Transformers’ has grossed a massive $214.9 million. By this weekend it will surpass ‘Star Trek’ and ‘Up’ to become the year’s biggest movie at the domestic box office.

-- Ben Fritz