USC and Lincoln Riley hope to halt out-of-state exodus on early signing day

The exodus that would define this cycle for USC started almost six months ahead of Wednesday’s early signing day, just as its recruiting efforts were rolling and its 2025 class had climbed into the top five.

Lincoln Riley and his USC staff had set out over the last year to stake their claim outside the bounds of Southern California, an approach far removed from that of his predecessors. Heading into the summer, though, the Trojans’ out-of-state pursuits appeared to be humming along. Three five-star prospects, all from the state of Georgia, had committed to play at USC. A flood of other commits from the Southeast followed.

The Trojans looked, as of early June, to be headed in an elite direction on the recruiting trail, marching toward the sort of rarefied air that had recently eluded Riley. Then, the two crown jewels of that group — defensive linemen Justus Terry and Isaiah Gibson, each top 10 prospects from the Peach State — pulled their commitments. Over the course of 24 hours, the challenges of keeping such a disparate class intact had become painfully clear.

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Since June, USC has lost 10 commitments from its class, nine of whom were out-of-state prospects and five of whom were ranked in the top 100. In total, 13 commits turned away from their pledge to the Trojans during this recruiting cycle, among the most of any program in the country.

According to 247 Sports metrics, USC’s group of decommitments would actually outrank its current class, which sits in 16th place nationally.

That’s not to suggest USC, fresh off its frustrating 6-6 finish to the season, is stumbling its way into the early signing window. The top quarterback in the state, Corona Centennial five-star Husan Longstreet, will be the centerpiece of a class that also includes two top-150 offensive tackles and could add two top-50 defenders this week.

That will presumably be enough for its class to finish fourth or fifth in the Big Ten. But even as USC aims to finish strong on Wednesday, it’s hard not to wonder what might have been with a different approach.

“The strategy works if you can hold on to them,” said Brandon Huffman, the national recruiting editor for 247 Sports. “But if it starts to backfire and you start to lose those players to programs in their own regional footprint, it makes you wonder if this is the right and the most sound strategy. You’re beating the heavyweights to get them. But now you have to hold those heavyweights off.”

It has also meant paying less attention to the best prospects in your own backyard. Ahead of signing day, USC had just one commit (Longstreet) ranked among the top 12 prospects in the state. Another — JSerra linebacker Madden Faraimo, the sixth-ranked player in the state and No. 61 overall player in the class — was rumored this week to be trending toward the Trojans.

Corona Centennial quarterback Husan Longstreet passes during a playoff win over Mission Viejo on Nov. 15.

(Craig Weston)

Faraimo’s signing, if it happens, won’t change the fact that other programs have far outperformed USC in its own territory. Alabama has three commits ranked in the top seven in the state of California, and Texas A&M and Penn State would have the same number of top-12 signees in the state as USC.

Meanwhile, 15% of USC’s offers in the 2025 cycle went east to the state of Georgia, where Georgia coach Kirby Smart successfully stiff-armed Riley and his staff, securing commitments from six of the top seven recruits in the state.

The Big Ten’s other powers are also primed to lock down their own state’s top prospects on signing day as well. Michigan has three of the top five commits in Michigan, and Ohio State has three of the top five in Ohio.

Last month, as coaches whispered about USC’s absence in the region, Riley assured that the state was “priority No. 1.”

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“That’s not going to change,” Riley said.

Outside of Faraimo, though, the one prospect most capable of altering the outlook of USC’s class on signing day is a defensive lineman from Louisiana.

Jahkeem Stewart is the type of freakish five-star talent who could totally transform a defense. He’s also likely to cost seven figures per year as part of a massive name, image and likeness package. But the 17-year-old from Edna Karr High in New Orleans has played just 12 varsity football games and hasn’t played since reclassifying from the 2026 recruiting class.

“His upside makes him a kind of unicorn,” Huffman said. “But he just doesn’t have the reps.”

Stewart will choose between Louisiana State, Ohio State, Oregon and USC, but none is as desperate for his services as USC. He would give the Trojans a marquee signee along the defensive front, where they currently have zero edge rushers committed and just three defensive linemen, none of whom are ranked in the top 250

“They’re always, you could argue, one of the toughest, if not the toughest position to recruit,” Riley said. “Because there’s not many great ones, and they’re typically in high demand.”

Demands have shifted significantly over the course of this particular recruiting cycle, with an earlier signing period and revenue-sharing on the horizon. That has made for more volatility than usual, Riley said.

Though, his own class has been particularly unwieldy ahead of Wednesday.

“You’re seeing it happen all over the country,” Riley said. “We’re going to stay steady, stay the course. We know the kind of people and players we want to bring in here, and that’s what we’re going to keep doing.”