Star power can't lift 'American Idol,' but it's still a win for Fox

By Scott Collins, Los Angeles Times

March 26, 2013 12 AM PT

The producers at “American Idol” wanted to shore up a dramatic slide in ratings for the show’s newest season, so they added three star judges and even allowed viewers to vote online for favorites up to 50 times simultaneously.

The changes for the 12th season didn’t help. Ratings have plummeted by double digits for the second year in a row, down this season by 18%, to 15.8 million total viewers, according to Nielsen. In its fifth season in 2006, “Idol’s” average audience was more than twice as large. And the declines are just as bad among viewers ages 18 to 49, the demographic that advertisers crave most.

“‘Idol’s’ sort of run its life as being at the top of the heap,” said Steve Smith, a partner at the Dallas-based ad agency Firehouse.

PHOTOS: ‘American Idol’ judges through the years

Analysts blame the decline on a variety of factors, including audiences tiring of the concept after more than a decade, a constantly rotating panel of judges and a glut of rival singing shows.

Whatever the reasons, the comedown has serious implications for Fox.

For eight straight seasons, the News Corp.-owned network has been No. 1 with viewers 18 to 49, a feat almost entirely attributable to “Idol.” For advertisers, “Idol” became the most expensive on TV, with 30-second commercials running more than $700,000 during Season 7. Even with ratings falling last year, the show grossed more than $800 million in ad revenue alone, according to Kantar Media.

Perhaps more important, for the past decade “Idol” has proved that, in the face of stiff competition from online media and cable niche series, broadcasters can still gather a weekly audience of tens of millions with the right product. It found a high-profile rival in NBC’s “The Voice” — which returned Monday after a lengthy hiatus, with new judges Shakira and Usher joining Adam Levine and Blake Shelton — as well as Fox’s own “The X Factor” with Simon Cowell, formerly the star of “Idol,” which airs in the fall.

But in February executives at News Corp. reported that lower ratings at “Idol” and “X Factor” are hurting the bottom line, and the picture for the former has darkened since then. “We have had a very disappointing year, ratings-wise,” News Corp. Chief Operating Officer Chase Carey told analysts.

The network is scrambling to put the best face on the situation.

“At these current [ratings] levels, obviously we’re going to be on for a very, very long time,” said Mike Darnell, Fox’s president of alternative programming. He called the declines “fully expected.”

PHOTOS: ‘American Idol’ - Where are they now?

The addition of Nicki Minaj, Mariah Carey and Keith Urban as judges this year “proved that you can take what has become an institution and revamp it,” he said, adding that audiences are simply beginning to tire of singing shows. “There’s just a glut and everything’s suffering.”

Analysts agree that audiences have entered a state of singing-show fatigue. But Fox has compounded that problem by devoting huge chunks of its fall and spring schedules to singing contests that share the same lineage. “X Factor” stars Cowell, the former standout judge on “Idol.” The programs are so similar that litigation between Cowell and “Idol” creator Simon Fuller over the issue dates back nearly 10 years.

NBC’s Paul Telegdy, who oversees “The Voice,” scoffed at the notion of a glut.

“We do not lie awake with that show in our targets in any way,” Telegdy said. “I don’t care if it beats us. ‘The Voice’ dances to the rhythm of its own drummer.”

With ratings ebbing, “Idol” has been swept up into a horse race over celebrity judges, with each singing show trying to outdo the other with star firepower. And now Fox is beginning to see the downside of that approach.

Fremantle Media, which produces “Idol,” handed Carey a paycheck worth a reported $18 million, making her one of the highest-paid people on TV even though she had never been on a series before and her ability to deliver viewers was untested. “X Factor” paid Britney Spears $15 million last fall for a performance that was almost universally panned as drab and tentative — and the star nevertheless demanded a raise in contract renewal talks, reports said. She won’t be back next year.

“Britney Spears on ‘X Factor’ brought nothing other than her fame,” said Yahoo Music managing editor Lyndsey Parker, who writes a blog about music reality shows.

Of course, those salaries pale in comparison to that of Cowell, who according to Forbes was making at least $45 million per year in his final years on “Idol.” But some of the recent “Idol” judges have been remarkably well-paid considering their performance.

PHOTOS: ‘American Idol’ judges through the years

Earlier this month Minaj, a streetwise and eccentric pop-rap diva making a reported $8 million this season for her work on the program, showed up nearly 15 minutes late for the crucial first live telecast from Hollywood — a notable misfire for a show that prides itself on high production values. She finally slid into her chair during a commercial break wearing a hoodie and novelty sunglasses, never addressing her tardiness.

But with so much money on the line, executives may feel a compulsion to exploit and cater to their marquee talent despite their repeated insistence that the focus should be on the young contestants who are auditioning for the big time.

Shortly before the “Idol” season premiere in January, reports surfaced that Minaj and Carey were feuding, a tale so conveniently juicy and gossip-ready that many fans assumed it was planted by the producers. Fox denied that was the case, but the damage may have been done.

“Someone at ‘Idol’ thought this is how you sell reality TV: Women fighting,” Parker said.

In a bid to reconnect with younger viewers, “Idol” may also have forgotten about its core audience. As teenagers have drifted off to other distractions, the audience has grayed, with a median age this season of 47, flat with last year.

Minaj is a popular, instantly recognizable figure among teenagers, but her quirks, wild wigs and costumes — not to mention her rap background — may be a turnoff to older viewers, many of whom were not previously familiar with her work and have expressed their displeasure on Facebook and other social media.

PHOTOS: ‘American Idol’ - Where are they now?

Parker, who believes Minaj has brought a welcome blast of directness and pop credibility to “Idol,” nevertheless sees a problem: “A lot of people see the reason the ratings are going down is Nicki.”

Darnell, not surprisingly, does not agree. He says the judges this season are “doing excellent,” and says the addition of this year’s crop has helped the show attract a younger audience (a talking point that recent figures do not bear out).

But the more important point is that “Idol” is still hugely profitable for Fox, and therefore it and its imitators may be around for a long, long time.

“These shows cover a lot of problems for the network, because they cover so many hours with pretty good or very good numbers,” Darnell said. “It’s not just the number. It’s the amount of hours. And that’s why these shows are so valuable.

“You’re still better having them on than having them off.”

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