Oscar 2016 predictions: Who's going to win in all 24 categories - Los Angeles Times
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Gold Standard: Oscar predictions: Who’s going to win in all 24 categories

Hollywood's most coveted statues will be handed out Sunday at the Academy Awards.

Hollywood’s most coveted statues will be handed out Sunday at the Academy Awards.

(Bob Chamberlin / Los Angeles Times)
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The Academy Awards arrive Sunday. Maybe you’re in an Oscar pool. Maybe you have a rooting interest. Maybe you’ve been tossing and turning at night wondering if Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to get his due. (Rest easy, friend. He is.)

To help you no matter your need, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories, including alternate picks in the closest races.

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BEST PICTURE

“The Big Shortâ€
“Bridge of Spiesâ€
“Brooklynâ€
“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€
“The Martianâ€
“The Revenantâ€
“Roomâ€
“Spotlightâ€

Will win: “The Big Short.†The X factor here is the academy’s preferential voting system, which asks voters to rank the movies in order. This rewards consensus choices, movies that show up consistently in voters’ first, second or third place spots. “Spotlight†and “The Big Short†would seem to be those kinds of films. And since I’ve been calling it for “The Big Short†even before its PGA win, I’m going to stubbornly stick with that choice.

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Could win: “Spotlight†or “The Revenantâ€

DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, “Roomâ€
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “The Revenantâ€
Tom McCarthy, “Spotlightâ€
Adam McKay, “The Big Shortâ€
George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

Will win: Never bet against the Directors Guild winner, which was Iñárritu. He’ll become the first director to take consecutive Oscars since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1950-51.

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LEAD ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, “Trumboâ€
Matt Damon, “The Martianâ€
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenantâ€
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobsâ€
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girlâ€

Will win: DiCaprio. The inevitable Oscar, forecasted long before “The Revenant†screened for critics and audiences. I still have a hard time thinking DiCaprio was somehow “due†for this. He has been nominated four other times and lost to better work on each occasion. But DiCaprio did convey misery and suffering in “The Revenant†with a conviction that gave the movie a smidgen of gravitas. So give him the Oscar. Now we can start to work on getting the criminally overlooked Amy Adams one next.

Watch Q&As with the ‘The Revenant’ cast and crew

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'The Revenant': Attraction of the story

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'The Revenant': Knowing a character's future

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'The Revenant': Conditions affect performance

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'The Revenant': Agility of the story

LEAD ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, “Carolâ€
Brie Larson, “Roomâ€
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joyâ€
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Yearsâ€
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklynâ€

Will win: Larson had a firm grip on this Oscar from the moment that “Room†premiered at Telluride and audiences witnessed her intense turn as the movie’s protective mother. Ronan, meanwhile, is all of 21. There will be plenty of time for her to take a turn at the podium.

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SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, “The Big Shortâ€
Tom Hardy, “The Revenantâ€
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlightâ€
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spiesâ€
Sylvester Stallone, “Creedâ€

Will win: There’s some feeling that Rylance could pull off an upset, pulling in votes from the serious actors brigade. I don’t buy it. Stallone’s compelling comeback story (yo, 39 years between Oscar nominations) has been the one of the year’s happier tales.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eightâ€
Rooney Mara, ““Carolâ€
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlightâ€
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girlâ€
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobsâ€

Will win: Vikander. Plenty of people want to see a Kate and Leo reunion, with each of them holding Oscars and DiCaprio offering some kind of variation on the “king of the world†speech. But between “The Danish Girl†and “Ex Machina,†Vikander has won the most acclaim. Plus, ingenues usually do quite well in this category.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

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“The Big Shortâ€
“Brooklynâ€
“Carolâ€
“The Martianâ€
“Roomâ€

Will win: “The Big Short†took what could have been a lecture and turned it into an anarchic, bracing broadside against Wall Street malfeasance.

Watch Q&As with ‘Room’s’ Brie Larson

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'Room:' When Brie Larson read the novel for the first time

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'Room:' Tapping into dark moments with Lenny Abrahamson

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'Room:' Breaking down the film's reunion scene

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'Room:' Learning from real life victims

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'Room:' How everything in the film tells a story

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Bridge of Spiesâ€
“Ex Machinaâ€
“Inside Outâ€
“Spotlightâ€
“Straight Outta Comptonâ€

Will win: “Spotlight†for its meticulous, understated portrait of journalists bringing to light horrors too long ignored.

ANIMATED FEATURE

“Anomalisaâ€

“Boy and the Worldâ€

“Inside Outâ€

“Shaun the Sheep Movieâ€

“When Marnie Was Thereâ€

Will win: “Inside Out.†Pixar returns to the winner’s circle with its best movie since 2010’s “Toy Story 3.â€

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FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

“Embrace of the Serpentâ€

“Mustangâ€

“Son of Saulâ€

“Theebâ€

“A Warâ€

Will win: “Son of Saul.†Oscar voters get heat for rewarding Holocaust films time and time again, but Laszlo Nemes’ movie managed to freshly illuminate those horrors in a uniquely executed fashion.

DOCUMENTARY

“Amyâ€

“Cartel Landâ€

“The Look of Silenceâ€

“What Happened, Miss Simone?â€

“Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedomâ€

Will win: “Amy.†Asif Kapadia’s empathetic look at the late singer Amy Winehouse has both reviews and box office on its side. “Cartel Land†could surprise if voters decide to go for an issue-oriented doc.

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CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Carolâ€

“The Hateful Eightâ€

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Revenantâ€

“Sicarioâ€

Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki will become the first cinematographer to win three consecutive Oscars. Nobody’s complaining. “Gravity,†“Birdman†and now “The Revenant†each furthered the craft.

COSTUME DESIGN

“Carolâ€

“Cinderellaâ€

“The Danish Girlâ€

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Revenantâ€

Will win: “Cinderella.†Sandy Powell now has a dozen Oscar nominations and three wins. I’m guessing she’ll add a fourth Oscar to the mantel for the glass slippers and all those fairy tale gowns.

Could win: How many academy members’ children (and grandchildren) drew inspiration from “Mad Max†for their Halloween get-ups? If there’s enough, maybe there will be an upset. You can’t discount “Carol,†Powell’s other nominated film, either.

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FILM EDITING

“The Big Shortâ€

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Revenantâ€

“Spotlightâ€

“Star Wars: The Force Awakensâ€

Will win: Margaret Sixel’s Herculean effort cutting together the massive amount of footage shot by her husband, George Miller, for “Mad Max: Fury Road,†is the favorite.

Could win: Hank Corwin’s work in “The Big Short†is both flashy and essential, the kind of editing voters like to reward.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappearedâ€

“The Revenantâ€

Will win: “Mad Max.†Score one for the War Boys!

PRODUCTION DESIGN

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“Bridge of Spiesâ€

“The Danish Girlâ€

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Martianâ€

“The Revenantâ€

Will win: “Mad Max: Fury Road.†Those cars! Those caves!

SCORE

“Bridge of Spiesâ€

“Carolâ€

“The Hateful Eightâ€

“Sicarioâ€

“Star Wars: The Force Awakensâ€

Will win: Ennio Morricone. After receiving an honorary Academy Award nine years ago, the 87-year-old composing legend wins his first proper Oscar for the haunting “Hateful Eight.â€

SONG

“Earned It†from “Fifty Shades of Greyâ€

“Manta Ray†from “Racing Extinctionâ€

“Simple Song #3†from “Youthâ€

“Til It Happens to You†from “The Hunting Groundâ€

“Writing’s on the Wall†from “Spectreâ€

Will win: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Golden Globe, Grammy and, now, Oscar winner Lady Gaga.

SOUND EDITING

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“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Martianâ€

“The Revenantâ€

“Sicarioâ€

“Star Wars: The Force Awakensâ€

Will win: The sound categories come down to a coin flip between “Mad Max’s†deafening roar and the whistling wind of “The Revenant.†Let’s go with “Mad Max†here ...

Could win: “The Revenantâ€

SOUND MIXING

“Bridge of Spiesâ€

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Martianâ€

“The Revenantâ€

“Star Wars: The Force Awakensâ€

Will win: ... and “The Revenant†here for its immersive mix.

Could win: “Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Ex Machinaâ€

“Mad Max: Fury Roadâ€

“The Martianâ€

“The Revenantâ€

“Star Wars: The Force Awakensâ€

Will win: As best picture nominees typically prevail over their non-nominated competitors in this category, “Mad Max†gets the slight edge.

Could win: But this could also be the place where voters tip their hats to “Star Wars.†Another possibility: The roar of “The Revenant’s†digital bear.

ANIMATED SHORT

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“Bear Storyâ€

“Prologueâ€

“Sanjay’s Super Teamâ€

“We Can’t Live Without Cosmosâ€

“World of Tomorrowâ€

Will win: Even though Pixar hasn’t won this category in 14 years, it’s hard to pick against the emotional “Sanjay’s Super Team.â€

Could win: Don Hertzfeldt’s minimalist masterpiece “World of Tomorrow†is the class of the nominees. And “Bear Story†is a beautifully told story of loss with political undertones. Any of these shorts could take this Oscar.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“Body Team 12â€

“Chau, Beyond the Linesâ€

“Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoahâ€

“A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgivenessâ€

“Last Day of Freedomâ€

Will win: it’s hard to pick against the high-profile “Body Team 12,†which tells the story of the Ebola crisis through the eyes of a female Red Cross worker. It’s a well-made, eye-opening movie. Beyond that, the filmmakers embedded with an Ebola team. That action alone is going to win a few votes.

Could win: The other four nominees have their admirers too. As an alternate, I’d go with “Girl in the River,†the look at honor killings in Pakistan that seems poised to changing the country’s laws.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

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“Ave Mariaâ€

“Day Oneâ€

“Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)â€

“Shokâ€

“Stuttererâ€

Will win: “Shok,†the first Kosovo Oscar nominee, gets the edge for its affecting tale of friendship between two Kosovan boys and their awful encounters with Serbian troops.

Could win: “Ave Maria,†a geopolitical satire about a group of nuns helping Israeli travelers, seems to be the consensus favorite. But the humor feels a bit too forced for it to win.

[email protected] | Twitter: @glennwhipp

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