SAG Awards predictions: Will it be ‘Moonlight’ or ‘Manchester’?

SAG Awards nominations come from two panels — one for film, one for TV — comprising roughly 2,500 randomly chosen voters from within the membership. But every SAG-AFTRA member in good standing — 121,546, per the group’s count (nearly 5,000 more than last year!) — chooses the winners. That kind of volume usually results in safe choices, particularly on the television side. Here are my predictions for the Jan. 29 ceremony:

CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

×

The trailer for “Moonlight.�

The nominees: “Captain Fantastic,� “Fences,� “Hidden Figures,� “Manchester by the Sea,� “Moonlight�

And the winner is: “Manchester� scored the most individual nominations, but, with its triptych structure, the beloved “Moonlight� stands apart here as a true ensemble picture.

Unless: The strong work of the three “Manchester� nominees — Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams and Lucas Hedges — sways voters. “Fences� can’t be counted out, either.

See the most-read stories this hour »

MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The nominees: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea�; Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge�; Ryan Gosling, “La La Land�; Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic�; Denzel Washington, “Fences�

And the winner is: Washington is now one of five actors with four SAG Awards noms. The other four — Russell Crowe, Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hanks, Sean Penn — have won. Now it’s Washington’s turn.

Unless: All the accolades for Affleck keep momentum on his side.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The nominees: Amy Adams, “Arrival�; Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train�; Natalie Portman, “Jackie�; Emma Stone, “La La Land�; Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins�

And the winner is: In a coin-flip between Stone and Portman, I’ll go with Stone, as probably more voters will know her movie.

Unless: Awards voters’ penchant for picking biopic-ish performances prevails, putting Portman’s Jackie Kennedy in the winner’s circle.

MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The nominees: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight�; Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water�; Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins�; Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea�; Dev Patel, “Lion�

And the winner is: Ali, also among the “Hidden Figures� ensemble nominees, is the clear favorite here.

Unless: It’s a “Manchester� sweep, benefiting young Hedges.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The nominees: Viola Davis, “Fences�; Naomie Harris, “Moonlight�; Nicole Kidman, “Lion�; Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures�; Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea�

And the winner is: Davis is the lock of this awards season.

Unless: Davis comes out and says that her work in “Fences� is really a lead turn and that she’d greatly appreciate it if no one voted for her here.

ENSEMBLE IN A TV DRAMA SERIES

The nominees: “The Crown,� “Downton Abbey,� “Game of Thrones,� “Stranger Things,� “Westworld�

And the winner is: It’s hard to see a consensus coalescing around any of the three new shows. It’s also difficult to wrap our minds around “Downton� winning again. So finally, on its fourth time around, “Thrones� wins.

Unless: It’s a “Downton� three-peat, sending the series out in style.

ENSEMBLE IN A TV COMEDY SERIES

The nominees: “The Big Bang Theory,� “black-ish,� “Modern Family,� “Orange Is the New Black,� “Veep�

And the winner is: “Veep� has never been better and, remarkably, has never won this award. With politics on everyone’s minds, that should change this year.

Unless: SAG-AFTRA voters can’t resist the dozens and dozens of credited names in “Orange’s� super-sized ensemble and reward it for a third straight year.

MALE ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES

The nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us�; Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones�; John Lithgow, “The Crown�; Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot�; Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards�

And the winner is: Lithgow, who won twice on the comedy side for “3rd Rock From the Sun,� gets some love for playing Winston Churchill. It’s about time an American wins for playing a Brit and not the other way around!

Unless: Voters do a make-good for not giving Malek this award last year.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV DRAMA SERIES

The nominees: Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things�; Claire Foy, “The Crown�; Thandie Newton, “Westworld�; Winona Ryder, “Stranger Things�; Robin Wright, “House of Cards�

And the winner is: Foy. SAG-AFTRA can’t stop crowning “The Crown.�

Unless: Opinions vary on “Westworld,� but just about everyone can agree that Newton’s force-of-nature Maeve has been the best thing about the first-year show.

MALE ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES

The nominees: Anthony Anderson, “black-ish�; Tituss Burgess, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt�; Ty Burrell, “Modern Family�; William H. Macy, “Shameless�; Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent�

And the winner is: Tambor repeated at the Emmys and should do so here too.

Unless: It’s a big night for “blacki-ish� and Anderson prevails.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV COMEDY SERIES

The nominees: Uzo Aduba, “Orange Is the New Black�; Jane Fonda, “Grace and Frankie�; Ellie Kemper, “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt�; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep�; Lily Tomlin, “Grace and Frankie�

And the winner is: SAG Awards voters have never been as taken with Louis-Dreyfus’ work on “Veep� as their Emmy counterparts, giving her this award just once. Still, it’s hard to see Aduba winning for a third consecutive year, so Louis-Dreyfus is the safe pick.

Unless: Uzo Aduba, how could we ever have doubted you?

MALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINISERIES

The nominees: Riz Ahmed, “The Night Of�; Sterling K. Brown, “The People v. O.J. Simpson�; Bryan Cranston, “All the Way�; John Turturro, “The Night Of�; Courtney B. Vance, “The People v. O.J. Simpson�

And the winner is: Vance. “O.J.� still has juice.

Unless: Ahmed, with a high profile thanks to his turn in the new “Star Wars� movie, surprises for his “Night Of� transformation.

FEMALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR MINISERIES

The nominees: Bryce Dallas Howard, “Black Mirror�; Felicity Huffman, “American Crime�; Audra McDonald, “Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill�; Sarah Paulson, “The People v. O.J. Simpson�; Kerry Washington, “Confirmation�

And the winner is: Paulson is the TV side’s version of Viola Davis. Or the other way around. You don’t bet against either of these women.

Unless: There’s no unless! Weren’t you paying attention?

[email protected]

Twitter: @glennwhipp

UPDATES:

Jan. 27, 12:30 p.m.: This article was updated with new picks for lead actress in a television drama, and the addition of “Fences� as a possible winner in the cast in a motion picture category.

This article originally published on Dec. 22.