Gold Standard: Our early Golden Globe nomination predictions

Nov. 21, 2018 5:30 AM PT

No category classification should come as a shock with the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. and the Golden Globes. After all, this is a group that allowed “The Martian,” Ridley Scott’s brainy sci-fi adventure, to be called a comedy. (Scott was not amused.)

This year, for those keeping score: “Mary Poppins Returns” is a musical. “A Star Is Born” is not. “Green Book,” a period drama that looks at racial divides in America, is a comedy, as is (probably) “Vice,” Adam McKay’s scathing look at the life of Dick Cheney.

As we laugh through our tears, here’s an early look at what might be nominated when the HFPA reveals its picks on Dec. 6.

MOTION PICTURE DRAMA

“A Star Is Born”

“Black Panther”

“If Beale Street Could Talk”

“First Man”

“Widows”

On the cusp: “BlacKkKlansman,” “Boy Erased,” “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”, “A Quiet Place,” “Beautiful Boy,” “Mary Queen of Scots”

Analysis: Because the Globes’ drama category is seen (by some) as more prestigious, Warner Bros.’ awards strategists passed on the easy win in comedy/musical and placed “A Star Is Born” here. Will the move pay off? Time will tell, but it’s too late to turn back because … yes … they’re far from the shallow now.

FULL COVERAGE: Get the latest on awards season from The Envelope »

LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA

Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

Viola Davis, “Widows”

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

On the cusp: Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”; Julia Roberts, “Ben Is Back”; Saoirse Ronan, “Mary Queen of Scots”; Toni Collette, “Hereditary”; Rosamund Pike, “A Private War”

Analysis: Someone alert Leonardo DiCaprio — Lady Gaga might be walking to the stage again at this year’s Golden Globes. Meanwhile, the Hollywood Foreign Press could give Mexican newcomer Aparicio some early awards season momentum for her beautiful, almost-silent turn in “Roma.”

LEAD ACTOR DRAMA

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

Ryan Gosling, “First Man”

Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”

Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”

On the cusp: Steve Carell, “Beautiful Boy”; Hugh Jackman, “The Front Runner”; Chadwick Boseman, “Black Panther”; Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”; John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”

Analysis: Could this be a category dominated by actors playing doomed musicians? HFPA voters have historically gone gaga over musicals, so even with the bad reviews, you have to figure Malek, twice nominated for “Mr. Robot,” will be invited. But at the end of the day, it’s going to be hard to beat Cooper.

MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY

“The Favourite”

“Green Book”

“Crazy Rich Asians”

“Vice”

“Mary Poppins Returns”

On the cusp: “Eighth Grade,” “The Death of Stalin,” “The Old Man & the Gun,” “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” “Love, Simon,” “Mama Mia! Here We Go Again”

Analysis: Annapurna Pictures is submitting “Vice” as a comedy. At press time, the HFPA still hadn’t seen the movie, so its classification isn’t certain. But if it makes it in and my predictions hold, this category will be a diverse lot, sporting a romantic-comedy, a sobering satire, a subversive costume drama, a sequel to a 54-year-old musical and a comforting crowd pleaser.

LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL

Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”

Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”

Charlize Theron, “Tully”

Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”

On the cusp: Lily James, “Mama Mia! Here We Go Again”; Sandra Bullock, “Ocean’s 8”; Kathryn Hahn, “Private Life”

Analysis: Here’s hoping voters remember the 15-year-old Fisher, so charming, brave and honest in Bo Burnham’s extraordinary indie, which arrived in theaters in July. Her work is easily the equal of any other contenders in this category, including deserving front-runner Colman.

LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL

Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”

Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Christian Bale, “Vice”

Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”

Nick Robinson, “Love, Simon”

On the cusp: Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool 2”; Ewan McGregor, “Christopher Robin”; John C. Reilly, “The Sisters Brothers”; Joaquin Phoenix, “The Sisters Brothers”

Analysis: Redford doesn’t want any talk about farewells, but sentiment aside, he was quite good in David Lowery’s wistful, whimsical “Old Man.” As far as actors with thinner resumes, how about a little love for the baby-faced Robinson, wonderful and winning in “Love, Simon”?

DRAMA SERIES

“Killing Eve”

“Homecoming”

“The Handmaid’s Tale”

“This Is Us”

“Pose”

On the cusp: “The Americans,” “Westworld,” “Ozark,” “Better Call Saul”

Analysis: First-year dramas have won this prize four straight years, which is good news for “Killing Eve,” “Homecoming” and “Pose.” Hulu’s “The Handmaid’s Tale,” the reigning winner, should return, with the final spot going to either “This Is Us” or, in a valedictory nod, “The Americans,” a series that, remarkably, the HFPA has never nominated.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”

Julia Roberts, “Homecoming”

Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”

Keri Russell, “The Americans”

On the cusp: Robin Wright, “House of Cards”; Jodie Whittaker, “Doctor Who”; Evan Rachel Wood, “Westworld”; MJ Rodriguez, “Pose”; Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”; Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Deuce”

Analysis: Balfe has earned nominations the past three years, but between Roberts and the two terrific leads from “Killing Eve” (hopefully, the HFPA rewards Comer too, making up for the Emmys’ slight), there’s not enough room for everyone here this year. Whittaker, the first woman to play the lead in “Doctor Who,” is the wild card.

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”

Stephan James, “Homecoming”

Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”

J.K. Simmons, “Counterpart”

Kevin Costner, “Yellowstone”

On the cusp: Milo Ventimiglia, “This Is Us”; John Krasinski, “Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan”; Jason Bateman, “Ozark”; Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”; Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”; Freddie Highmore, “The Good Doctor”

Analysis: Maybe I’m predicting too much turnover for a category that has seen Schreiber earn nominations for every season of “Ray Donovan.” Of the newcomers, James has the best show and the breakout role. I like his chances (and his performance) far better than veterans Costner and Krasinski. And with Season 2 of “Counterpart” premiering the same week nominations are announced, hopefully Simmons gets his due for his underappreciated series.

COMEDY SERIES

“Barry”

“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

“Atlanta”

“GLOW”

“The Good Place”

On the cusp: “Forever,” “The Kominsky Method,” “Kidding,” “Murphy Brown,” “Insecure,” “black-ish”

Analysis: Globes voters fell hard for “Mrs. Maisel” last year, nominating it just a week after its first season debuted on Amazon. (The show and its star, Rachel Brosnahan, both ended up winning.) Its second season will premiere the day before nominations are announced this year, but that shouldn’t stop the HFPA from feting it again.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Maya Rudolph, “Forever”

Alison Brie, “GLOW”

Issa Rae, “Insecure”

Kristen Bell, “The Good Place”

On the cusp: Candice Bergen, “Murphy Brown”; Jennifer Garner, “Camping”; Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”

Analysis: Garner picked up four nominations, winning once, for “Alias,” but “Camping” is probably too divisive for her to return. The well-liked Rudolph is a surer bet for “Forever,” the bingeable Amazon series that showcased her considerable comic (and dramatic) talents.

LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Donald Glover, “Atlanta”

Bill Hader, “Barry”

Jim Carrey, “Kidding”

Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”

Ted Danson, “The Good Place”

On the cusp: Fred Armisen, “Forever”; Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”; William H. Macy, “Shameless”; Eric McCormack, “Will & Grace”

Analysis: Hader won the Emmy as the conflicted hit man in “Barry,” and he could repeat at this year’s Globes. As HFPA voters love to be the first to recognize new shows and their stars, Hader’s main competition could come from veterans Douglas and Carrey, both doing good work on flawed series.

[email protected]

Twitter: @glennwhipp

Gold Standard: Our early Golden Globe nomination predictions

More to Read

More From the Los Angeles Times

Most Read in Awards