Look for respectable choices in the Golden Globe nominations

By Glenn Whipp

Nov. 22, 2016 7 AM PT

Remember when predicting the Golden Globes was a simple math equation along the lines of: Star Power + Junket Price Tag = Nomination?

That’s no longer the case as the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. has taken a stab at respectability in recent years, forsaking the likes of Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie in favor of critics groups’ favorites. The trend will likely hold this year, as you’ll see in this early look at the front-runners for this year’s nominations, to be announced Dec. 12.

MOTION PICTURE DRAMA

“Fences”

“Manchester by the Sea”

“Silence”

“Moonlight”

“Lion”

Bubbling under: “Jackie,” “Loving,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Nocturnal Animals”

Analysis: Accepting on faith that Martin Scorsese’s long-gestating epic, “Silence,” will score with a group that has rewarded the director often over the years. Also hedging that Harvey Weinstein’s long-standing HFPA mind-meld puts “Lion” in the fold.

ACTOR DRAMA

Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Tom Hanks, “Sully”

Joel Edgerton, “Loving”

Andrew Garfield, “Silence”

Bubbling under: Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nocturnal Animals”; Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”; Michael Keaton, “The Founder”; Matthew McConaughey, “Gold”; Will Smith, “Collateral Beauty”

Analysis: Smith scored a nom last year for “Concussion,” as the HFPA loves to reward him for dramas. So he might sneak in here, as could Garfield for “Hacksaw” as Globes voters loved Mel Gibson’s war drama.

ACTRESS DRAMA

Natalie Portman, “Jackie”

Ruth Negga, “Loving”

Amy Adams, “Arrival”

Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures”

Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”

Bubbling under: Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”; Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train”; Rachel Weisz, “Denial”; Jennifer Lawrence, “Passengers”; Marion Cotillard, “Allied”; Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals”

Analysis: You’d think the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. would have a stronger track record recognizing talent from foreign-language films. Nominations do happen, but not often enough. Huppert, though, could break through thanks to her virtuoso turn in “Elle” and because … she’s Isabelle Huppert!

MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY

“La La Land”

“Florence Foster Jenkins”

“20th Century Women”

“Sing Street”

“The Lobster”

Bubbling under: “Love and Friendship,” “Rules Don’t Apply,” “The Comedian,” “Deadpool”

Analysis: The likely inclusion of Yorgos Lanthimos’ absurdist comedy-drama “The Lobster” might puzzle some, but the 2015 Cannes Jury Prize winner fits the HFPA’s preference for deadpan humor. This group also can’t resist music movies, which could bode well for “Sing Street.” John Carney’s charming crowdpleaser bombed at the box office in April, but deserves to be discovered for its beautifully crafted adolescent romance.

ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”

Colin Farrell, “The Lobster”

Robert De Niro, “The Comedian”

Warren Beatty, “Rules Don’t Apply”

Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”

Bubbling under: Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool”; Don Cheadle, “Miles Ahead”; Russell Crowe, “The Nice Guys”; Jesse Eisenberg, “Cafe Society”

Analysis: Some are floating “Deadpool’s” Reynolds as a possible nominee. It’d be a headline-grabber for sure, but also out of character for a group that rarely rewards crude humor.

ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Emma Stone, “La La Land”

Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”

Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Kate Beckinsale, “Love & Friendship”

Sally Field, “Hello, My Name Is Doris”

Bubbling under: Kristen Stewart, “Cafe Society”; Renee Zellweger, “Bridget Jones’s Baby”; Lily Collins, “Rules Don’t Apply”; Susan Sarandon, “The Meddler”

Analysis: HFPA voters love — and I mean, really love — Field, nominating her 11 times over the years. Her exuberant turn as a lonely office worker in “Doris,” a modest indie hit released earlier this year — could make it an even dozen. It’d be a well-deserved honor.

DRAMA SERIES

“The Crown”

“Stranger Things”

“Westworld”

“Game of Thrones”

“This Is Us”

Bubbling under: “Mr. Robot,” “Outlander,” “Narcos,” “Designated Survivor,” “The Americans”

Analysis: Globes voters tend to shuffle the deck with their television honors, looking to plant the flag on new shows months before the Emmys. I wouldn’t be shocked to see four new series nominated here, with Netflix’s rich historical drama “The Crown” being the big favorite. “Game of Thrones” could be the only holdover.

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Anthony Hopkins, “Westworld”

Kiefer Sutherland, “Designated Survivor”

Matt Smith, “The Crown”

Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot”

Billy Bob Thornton, “Goliath”

Bubbling under: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”; Sam Heughan, “Outlander”; Matthew Rhys, “The Americans”; Wagner Moura, “Narcos”; Hugh Laurie, “Chance”

Analysis: Sutherland earned six Globe nominations for “24,” winning once, and could well return to the fold for his change-of-pace turn in the political drama, “Designated Survivor.” I’m also curious to see if the Emmys’ long-delayed embrace of “The Americans” spills over to Globes. It’s a long-shot, but Rhys certainly merits a nomination.

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Claire Foy, “The Crown”

Evan Rachel Wood, “Westworld”

Winona Ryder, “Stranger Things”

Viola Davis, “How to Get Away With Murder”

Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”

Bubbling under: Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”; Robin Wright, “House of Cards”; Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”; Kylie Bunbury, “Pitch”; Keri Russell, “The Americans”

Analysis: Both Davis and Henson, who won last year for “Empire,” are also possibilities on the film side for their strong work in, respectively, “Fences” and “Hidden Figures.” (In fact, Davis could show up in the lead category for “Fences,” should HFPA voters decide to ignore the studio’s suggestion for supporting actress placement.) Both women have a lot of fans in the group, so a double-dip wouldn’t be surprising.

COMEDY SERIES

“Atlanta”

“Divorce”

“Insecure”

“Transparent”

“Veep”

Bubbling under: “black-ish,” “Mozart in the Jungle,” “Silicon Valley,” “Catastrophe,” “Casual”

Analysis: “Mozart” won last year, but may have difficulty even earning a nomination in the face of strong competition from the acclaimed new shows “Atlanta” and “Insecure,” as well as “Divorce,” the new series starring four-time Globe winner Sarah Jessica Parker.

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Donald Glover, “Atlanta”

Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Gael García Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle”

Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”

Thomas Haden Church, “Divorce”

Bubbling under: Ted Danson, “The Good Place”; Nick Nolte, “Graves”; Zach Galifianakis, “Baskets”

Analysis: I am missing “Atlanta” so much right now (can it make like “Downtown Abbey” and air a Christmas special?) that I’d actually watch the Globes as a private citizen just to catch a glimpse of Glover and, hopefully, Brian Tyree Henry, Keith Stanfield and Zazie Beetz at the ceremony. Oh, and thinking ahead, Glover should absolutely win this prize.

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Issa Rae, “Insecure”

Sarah Jessica Parker, “Divorce”

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”

Kristen Bell, “The Good Place”

Minnie Driver, “Speechless”

Bubbling under: Tig Notaro, “One Mississippi”; Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”; Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”; Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”; Jamie Lee Curtis, “Scream Queens”

Analysis: Louis-Dreyfus has never won a Globe for “Veep.” Never! And I doubt that will change this year, given the arrivals of celebrated newcomer Rae and perennial nominee Parker.

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Twitter: @glennwhipp

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