With the Golden Globes' recent respectability, don't expect any surprises in the nominations

Dec. 8, 2017 5:20 PM PT

Where have all the weirdos gone in the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn., the ones who’d nominate “Burlesque” for best motion picture or think that Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie both deserved nods for the complete lack of chemistry they displayed in “The Tourist”?

The last few years, the Golden Globes have been far too respectable. And where’s the fun in that? Don’t look for these freshly minted pillars of good taste to change course this year. Nominations will be announced Dec. 11.

MOTION PICTURE DRAMA

“Dunkirk”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

“Call Me By Your Name”

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

On the cusp: “Darkest Hour,” “Mudbound,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Florida Project”

Analysis: “Three Billboards” could have gone for comedy and earned a nod. Perhaps the movie’s log line — grieving mother puts up billboards criticizing police for not solving her daughter’s rape and murder — gave the studio pause. It doesn’t sound funny, even though it does have comic moments. But it’s too good not to be nominated here.

ACTRESS, DRAMA

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Jennifer Lawrence, “mother!”

Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”

On the cusp: Kate Winslet, “Wonder Wheel”; Gal Gadot, “Wonder Woman”; Diane Kruger, “In the Fade”; Annette Bening, “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool”; Salma Hayek, “Beatriz at Dinner”

Analysis: Lawrence would be a bold choice, one that would position the HFPA as champions for daring (overbearing) cinema. Plus, it would put Lawrence — a three-time winner — in the room, which would be good for ratings, a more likely consideration for this bunch.

ACTOR, DRAMA

Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”

Tom Hanks, “The Post”

Jake Gyllenhaal, “Stronger”

On the cusp: Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Analysis: With Hanks, Chalamet, Day-Lewis and Oldman almost sure things, it comes down to a choice between Washington and Gyllenhaal. The HFPA loves Washington, giving him two Globes, eight nominations and a special achievement award. But “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” was a critical and commercial disappointment. Give Gyllenhaal the slight edge.

MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY

“Get Out”

“Lady Bird”

“The Big Sick”

“I, Tonya”

“The Disaster Artist”

On the cusp: “The Greatest Showman,” “Beauty and the Beast,” “Battle of the Sexes,” “Downsizing,” “The Meyerowitz Stories”

Analysis: Voters could go all-indie by rewarding the black comedies “I, Tonya” and “The Disaster Artist.” Or they could go bigger, with Disney’s blockbuster “Beauty and the Beast” or “The Greatest Showman,” a big musical about circus founder P.T. Barnum. Feels like an all-indie year.

ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Judi Dench, “Victoria and Abdul”

Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”

Emma Watson, “Beauty and the Beast”

On the cusp: Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”; Michelle Williams, “The Greatest Showman”

Analysis: Salma Hayek was submitted here, but the HFPA moved “Beatriz at Dinner” over to drama. That’s a shame as her understated, playful performance stands among the year’s best. Watson stands as the beneficiary.

ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY

James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Kumail Nanjiani, “The Big Sick”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”

Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”

On the cusp: Matt Damon, “Downsizing”; Dan Stevens, “Beauty and the Beast”; Adam Sandler, “The Meyerowitz Stories”

Analysis: Damon is an HFPA favorite with two Globes to go along with seven nominations, so he’ll be in the running. But Carell (eight noms, one win) and Jackman (two noms, one win) have a history here too, and their movies, I’m told, played better with voters. And don’t completely discount Sandler, who has been nominated before.

DRAMA SERIES

“The Handmaid’s Tale”

“Stranger Things”

“Game of Thrones”

“This Is Us”

“The Crown”

On the cusp: “The Deuce,” “Mindhunter,” “The Good Doctor”

Analysis: You have to go back a long way to find a year that the HFPA didn’t recognize a first-year show here, which puts HBO’s well-regarded “The Deuce” in the mix. If it’s nominated though, it’ll be at the expense of one of last year’s rookie shows. Or maybe feting “The Handmaid’s Tale” will be enough to scratch that itch, since it premiered too late for last year.

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Deuce”

Claire Foy, “The Crown”

Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”

Mandy Moore, “This Is Us”

On the cusp: Laura Linney, “Ozark”; Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why”; Carrie Coon, “The Leftovers”; Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”; Keri Russell, “The Americans”

Analysis: Voters have boosted Gyllenhaal over the years — she won a Globe in 2015 for her lead turn on the miniseries “The Honourable Woman” — and she’s a sure bet to land a spot here for her boundary-pushing work on “The Deuce.” Balfe has earned nods the last two years, recognition the HFPA should be proud of bestowing.

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA

James Franco, “The Deuce”

Jason Bateman, “Ozark”

Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”

Jonathan Groff, “Mindhunter”

Freddie Highmore, “The Good Doctor”

On the cusp: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”; Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”; Rami Malek, “Mr. Robot”; Sam Heughan, “Outlander”

Analysis: Remember who won here last year? Billy Bob Thornton for “Goliath.” That show’s second season won’t air until 2018, leaving the category open for … wait … how many Golden Globes is Franco going to win this year? Two seems almost a safe bet.

Video Q&A’s from this season’s hottest contenders »

COMEDY SERIES

“Will & Grace”

“Veep”

“Master of None”

“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

“Curb Your Enthusiasm”

On the cusp: “Insecure,” “Black-ish,” “GLOW,” “Better Things,” “Mozart in the Jungle,” “SMILF”

Analysis: “Will & Grace” picked up 27 Globes nominations over the years, including five series nods, and it never won anything. Zero for 27. Maybe the revival will change its luck. The HFPA has never been that enamored with “Veep” anyway. It will also be interesting to see if the group gives some love to “Better Things” in the wake of Pamela Adlon severing ties to Louis C.K. A more likely bet: Amazon Prime’s charming “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”

See the most-read stories this hour »

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “Veep”

Debra Messing, “Will & Grace”

Alison Brie, “GLOW”

Tracee Ellis Ross, “black-ish”

Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

On the cusp: Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”; Issa Rae, “Insecure”; Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin”; Rachel Bloom, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”; Kristen Bell, “The Good Place”

Analysis: This feels like a great spot to finally give the gifted Brie, so good over the years in so many different things (“Community,” “Mad Men”), some recognition. She’s fearless and funny as an actress-turned-wrestler on Netflix’s “GLOW.” Another strong contender: Rachel Brosnahan from the late-arriving “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY

Anthony Anderson, “black-ish”

Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”

Eric McCormack, “Will & Grace”

Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”

Ted Danson, “The Good Place”

On the cusp: Gael Garcia Bernal, “Mozart in the Jungle”; Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent”

Analysis: The previous eight seasons of “Curb” netted just three series nominations and three acting nods for David. Not exactly pretty, pretty good. But the novelty of its return after a six-year hiatus should be good enough to earn David a nomination — provided voters didn’t watch him host “Saturday Night Live” last month.

[email protected]

Twitter: @glennwhipp