‘Fantastic Four’ expected to dominate weekend in a slower month at box office

“Fantastic Four� will likely have a solid debut at the weekend box office, but it might not be enough to help jumpstart sluggish August ticket sales.

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The Marvel film is tracking to debut with up to $50 million, according to people familiar with pre-release audience surveys. Twentieth Century Fox, which is releasing the film, has a more modest forecast in the $40 million range.

“Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation� is expected to stay strong in its second weekend. Tracking suggests the film, which topped the box office with $56 million last weekend, will drop only about 20% to 30%. Other contenters this weekend include “The Gift,� “Ricki and the Flash� and “Shaun the Sheep.�

Analysts don’t expect this week’s entrants to help revive ticket sales in what has so far been a slow start for the month -- but, the summer as a whole could still be on track for a historic finish thanks to recent blockbusters like “Jurassic World� and “Minions.� Hollywood has made about $3.6 billion since the summer kicked off in May, according to Rentrak.

“August is not necessarily a blockbuster month,� said Paul Dergarabedian, an analyst at Rentrak. “But I wouldn’t underestimate it. ... I think we’re going to wind up with the second biggest summer ever, after the 2013 $4.75-billion record.�

Last summer, the movie industry suffered its worst May-to-Labor Day season since 1997, after adjusting for inflation. But things would have been worse without the surprise superhero hit “Guardians of the Galaxy.� The unconventional comic book movie launched with $94-million, the highest opening for an August release. It went on to collect about $333 million domestically.

Now, “Fantastic Four,� another Marvel film, will test its box office might in a crowded marketplace. The film, which stars Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara and Jamie Bell, is a contemporary re-imagining of Marvel’s original and longest-running superhero team. It cost Fox $120 million to make.

The Marvel brand already has a built-in fan base, with most films drawing hoards of moviegoers. But like all reboots, “Fantastic Four� can be a risk.

The previous “Fantastic Four� film, which starred a different ensemble, finished first with a $56.1-million opening weekend in 2005 despite mixed reviews.

Fox has a lot riding on the remake, including an intended sequel that’s already on the calendar for 2017. The studio must win over fans and jump-start a new franchise.

“It seems like this latest installment is the closest to the original intention of the comic book,� Dergarabedian said. “At the end of the day, all the audience cares about is that it’s been at least a couple of weeks since a superhero movie release.�

New offering “The Gift,� which cost just $5 million to make, is looking at an opening of between $6 million to $8 million. Some familiar with tracking suggest it could make as much as $12 million.

The film, produced by STX Entertainment and Blumhouse Productions, is a psychological thriller that follows a married couple (played by Jason Bateman and Rebecca Hall) after they have a chance encounter with an acquaintance from high school (Joel Edgerton).

This is STX Entertainment’s first film on the big screen. The studio, co-founded by businessman Robert Simonds and investment firm TPG Capital last year, focuses on films with low- to mid-level budgets of $20 million to $80 million. It is expected to release 12 to 15 films next year.

Also in theaters, Sony’s TriStar label will release “Ricki and the Flash� in 1,600 theaters this weekend, with plans to expand in the coming weeks. The film could make between $8 million and $10 million. Sony’s opening weekend esimate is between $6 million to $7 million.

The film, which is geared toward female audiences, follows mother/rock star Ricki Rendazzo (Meryl Streep) as she tries to reconnect with her ex-husband, Pete (Kevin Kline), daughter Julie (Mamie Gummer, Streep’s real-life daughter) and engaged son Josh (Sebastian Stan).

Lionsgate also will roll out “Shaun the Sheep� on Wednesday. The PG-rated animated film about is expected to make about $8 million over the five-day period.

Staff writer Oliver Gettell contributed to this report.

For more news on the entertainment industry, follow me @saba_h

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