Will Arizona go blue again? If it does, some will blame California

A canvasser hangs a pamphlet for Kamala Harris on a door

By Ryan FonsecaStaff Writer

Oct. 8, 2024 6:30 AM PT

Good morning. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

What’s got conservatives in Arizona feeling blue?
Hochman’s lead over Gascón grows to 30% in new D.A.’s race poll.
Kick-start your fall with these 19 pumpkin-filled adventures.
And here’s today’s e-newspaper

‘Anti-California sentiment’ grows in a changing Arizona

Today we’re heading over to one of our Golden State neighbors, where an influx of former Californians in recent years is raising questions about potential effects on the election.

In a few short weeks, Arizona takes center stage as one of several battleground states that will seal an election victory for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Trump.

Over 200,000 California residents have made their way to the Grand Canyon State between 2019 and 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau data (which doesn’t include figures from 2020). More than 74,000 made the move in 2022 alone.

We’ve covered the California exodus before in the newsletter and featured readers who explained why they left. Individual circumstances may vary, but there’s been a fairly common thread: People have found themselves disillusioned with the California dream as housing prices skyrocketed and paychecks didn’t go as far as they would across state lines.

But while legions of Californians have sought a better life for themselves in the Grand Canyon State, their migration has caused some sociopolitical friction, political writer Seema Mehta reported this week.

Political signs on the lawn in front of a home

“It isn’t always easy to discern the partisan preferences of the California expats, who move here for many reasons — growing job opportunities in the tech, semiconductor and other corporate sectors, cheaper housing, lower tax rates, less traffic and frustration with homelessness and crime in the Golden State,” she wrote in her latest subscriber exclusive. “But experts say their presence is being felt.”

Arizona had been deeply red for decades, with Republicans controlling both U.S. Senate seats and every statewide office, and enjoying supermajorities in both legislative houses.

It’s a much different landscape today. The state has a Democratic governor, secretary of state, attorney general and U.S. senator (the other, Kyrsten Sinema, was a Democrat who became an independent). Republican control of the state Legislature has fallen to a two-seat advantage in each house.

Seema notes that Arizona’s politics had been shifting even before the great California exodus.

One factor in that: a notable shift in the population of nonwhite potential voters.

Data crunched by NPR from the Brookings Institution and Edison Research showed the number of eligible Latino voters in Arizona rose nearly 10% between 2008 and 2024, while the number of eligible Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters more than doubled to 4.5%. In that same period, the number of eligible white non-college-educated voters fell more than 12%.

Though Latino and AAPI voters historically lean Democratic, it’s important to note that those categories are broad terms that don’t singularly define their diverse, sometimes misunderstood ideologies, just like it doesn’t for white voters.

A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll of Latino voters suggests Harris and her party are losing ground to Trump and the GOP, particularly among Latino men.

Even though those other factors have been percolating for a while, former Californians are shouldering much of the state’s conservative ire.

“There is anti-California sentiment,” Paul Bentz, a Phoenix-based Republican strategist and pollster, told Seema. “‘Don’t California my Arizona’ is a very popular and pervasive messaging strategy, particularly for Republicans.”

For getting through this more-Arizona-focused edition of Essential California, I give you Orange County socialite Lucille Bluth’s perspective on the two states (please don’t email me about it).

Today’s top stories

Side by side photos of a man with dark hair, in suit and blue tie, left, and a gray-haired man with glasses, in a dark suit

Hochman’s lead over Gascón grows to 30% in new a D.A.’s race poll

If the election were held today, 51% of the likely L.A. County voters would choose Nathan Hochman, and 21% would cast a ballot for George Gascón, according to a survey from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times. That leaves 28% undecided.
“It’s not even close,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. In order to keep his seat, he said, Gascón would have to significantly alter voter perceptions in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, these maps show where Gascón and Hochman need to win over votes.

Jewish leaders and lawmakers gathered in Beverly Hills for the Oct. 7 anniversary of the attack on Israel

Among the roughly 2,000 people who attended the event was Eitan Gonen, whose daughter Romi was taken hostage at a music festival last year by Hamas militants in Gaza. “I want to simply hug my daughter,” he said.
The anniversary rekindled raw emotions on L.A. campuses as as pro-Palestinian protesters and backers of Israel recalled the attack by Hamas and its continuing bloody aftermath.

A sales tax hike to help fund homeless services in Los Angeles County is inching closer to a majority, a poll found

The proposal known as Measure A is leading with 49% in favor to 33% opposed, a new poll found. It’s just 1 percentage point behind the majority needed to pass.
Supporters of the ballot measure, which would double the county’s quarter-percent homeless sales tax, have widened their lead by 5 percentage points compared with an earlier poll.

Fans threw balls and beer cans at Padres players — and traded blows — at Dodger Stadium over the weekend. But no arrests were made

The Los Angeles Police Department said there were no reports of any arrests and no radio calls for police at the stadium on Saturday or Sunday. At least two fans were ejected from Saturday’s game after they made their way onto left field.
Dodger fans lost their cool and the Dodgers lost their edge in a series-tying debacle, columnist Bill Plaschke observes.

What else is going on

City Council districts in Los Angeles could be radically reshaped by a state attorney general’s inquiry.
The real head-to-head battle defining California’s U.S. Senate race? It’s Schiff vs. Trump.
The Supreme Court turned down a challenge of California labor lawsuits by Uber and Lyft.
A Venice Canals assault victim filed a $5-million claim against the city of Los Angeles.
Some forms of air pollution may prolong postpartum depression, researchers found.
Al Pacino revealed that a COVID-19 infection in 2020 nearly killed him.
Sum 41’s Deryck Whibley alleged he was sexually abused by a former manager in a new memoir.
California’s October heat wave is winding down. Will it finally start feeling like fall again?

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Commentary and opinions

She’s going to prison for Trump’s Big Lie. Others should pay heed, columnist Mark Z. Barabak writes.
A conservative think tank says Trump policies would crater the economy — but it’s being kind, columnist Michael Hiltzik aruges.
Gov. Gavin Newsom sent a clear message about increasing benefits for undocumented immigrants, columnist George Skelton writes.
The unending, unjust Israel-Hamas war exposes rifts in the universality of human rights and the hypocrisy of Western nations, writes Daoud Kuttab, a Palestinian journalist and former professor of journalism at Princeton University.
Israel is fighting to beat Iran’s doomsday clock, writes Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow of the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.

This morning’s must reads

A photo of a surfer heading into the water at Lunada Bay.

A surf gang at Lunada Bay harassed outsiders for decades. Can anything stop them? A settlement has been reached with members of the Bay Boys and the city of Palos Verdes Estates, but nonlocal surfers say the surf gang is still active.

Other must reads

At the epicenter of the Mexican drug trade, a deadly power struggle shuts down a city.
Sex, radiation and mummies: How farms are fighting a pesky almond moth without pesticides.

How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].

For your downtime

Going out

🎃 Kick-start your fall with these 19 pumpkin-filled adventures.
🎥 Who’s afraid of Roy Cohn? Not Jeremy Strong, who plays the notorious political fixer in the controversial Trump biopic “The Apprentice.”
🥾 Looking for a good fall hike? The Times will hold a subscriber hike with outdoors reporter Jaclyn Cosgrove on Saturday, Oct. 19.

Staying in

🤡 Here’s why “Joker: Folie à Deux” became a creative and box-office flop, our critic explains.
🎙️ Anticipating backlash, Alex Cooper of the “Call Her Daddy” podcast explained her interview with Vice President Kamala Harris.
📺 Harris, meanwhile, will visit “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” today, marking her first late-night appearance since President Biden dropped out.
🦸 HBO’s “The Franchise” marvels at what a nightmare it is to make a superhero movie, our critic writes.
🥗 Here’s a recipe for Parmesan mac n cheese.
✏️ Get our free daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and arcade games.

And finally ... a great photo

Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they’re important to you.

A white goat wearing a straw hat and bandanna

Today’s great photo is from Elyse Jankowski of Los Angeles: a fancy-looking goat at the 1880s-themed Pioneertown, which served as a filming location for several Westerns in the ’40 and ’50s.

Elyse writes: “The town now serves as a favored weekend getaway for Angelenos and more. Visitors can enjoy shopping, dining, and even meet Sam the goat, the 2023 ceremonial mayor of Pioneertown.”

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Defne Karabatur, fellow
Andrew Campa, Sunday reporter
Hunter Clauss, multiplatform editor
Christian Orozco, assistant editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters

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